Core PCE still hot
US core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — stayed at 3.1% in January, while headline PCE ran 2.8% year‑over‑year and fourth‑quarter GDP was revised down to just 0.7% — all reported on March 13 and flagging stickier inflation than markets hoped for this year CNBC AP. Markets are pricing the Fed to sit tight at the upcoming meeting, making data releases (GDP revisions, PCE, JOLTS) the next likely volatility triggers Fox Business.
The BEA said) the downward revision in the second GDP estimate reflected weaker exports, downward revisions to government spending and investment, and a smaller-than-expected decline in imports that trimmed fourth‑quarter growth. January’s PCE report showed a 0.4% month‑over‑month increase in core prices and the BEA recorded) a $105.7 billion rise in services spending in January versus a $24.6 billion drop in goods outlays, with KPMG noting a notable uptick in “super‑core” services inflation. kpmg.com Market pricing left almost no chance of a rate cut at the March FOMC: the CME FedWatch tool was signaling under a 1% probability of a March reduction, according to CBS News’ summary of the FedWatch data tool), while a Bloomberg survey of economists moved) the median expected timing for the first cut to June. Job‑market data added to the squeeze: the BLS JOLTS release showed job openings rose to about 6.95 million—beating Reuters’ consensus of roughly 6.7 million—and the BLS noted) hires were little changed at 5.3 million amid annual revisions that updated 2025 levels.
