Oil jumps 7% after ceasefire ends

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, July 8, that the interim ceasefire with Iran was “over,” and crude prices surged as traders repriced the risk of a wider disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for September delivery rose as much as 7.6% to $79.76 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate for August gained 7.2% to about $75.40, according to OilPrice and market reports carried by CNBC. CBS reported that the U.S. launched a second night of strikes late Wednesday after Washington said it was retaliating for attacks on commercial ships earlier in the week. Iran then said it targeted U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, extending the exchange after Trump’s remarks at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. (oilprice.com) ### Why did oil move so fast after Trump’s remarks? Wednesday’s price jump followed Trump’s declaration that the ceasefire was finished and his threat to bomb Iran again, according to CNBC and Associated Press reports carried by ABC affiliates. Oil markets reacted because the fighting was tied directly to tanker traffic and military action near one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. (cbsnews.com) MarketWatch reported that the rally had already started on Tuesday after the Trump administration revoked waivers on Iranian oil sanctions in response to suspected attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. By Wednesday, WTI had posted a two-day gain of more than 9%, its biggest two-day rise since late April, according to that report. (cnbc.com) ### What happened near the Strait of Hormuz? OilPrice and multiple news outlets said Iran attacked three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, prompting U.S. retaliation. NBC News said maritime traffic in the strait had been central to the dispute and noted that about 20% of the world’s oil moved through the waterway before the war. (morningstar.com) Associated Press, in reports carried by ABC and other outlets, said the renewed fighting revived concern that sustained conflict could keep oil tankers from traveling through the Persian Gulf. That fear, rather than any confirmed long-term supply outage, was enough to push prices to their highest levels in weeks. (oilandgas360.com) ### What did the U.S. and Iran say they did next? U.S. Central Command said it struck about 90 targets inside Iran during the second round of attacks, including missile and drone storage sites and air defense systems, according to CBS. Tehran said it answered with strikes on U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. (abcnews.com) Trump said at the NATO summit that he thought the ceasefire was over, while AP reported that he also said he was not sure he wanted a deal anymore and that the U.S. should “finish the job.” NBC and other outlets said officials had still been negotiating over maritime traffic in Hormuz even as the fighting resumed. (cbsnews.com) ### Why are transport and shipping operators watching this so closely? ABC’s fuel-price report said the immediate concern was that a prolonged conflict could send fuel prices higher again if tanker movements through the Persian Gulf were disrupted. Higher crude prices typically feed through to diesel and marine fuel, raising costs for trucking fleets, retailers and ocean carriers. (apnews.com) CNBC said the market reaction was tied to the threat of more strikes and a possible renewed naval blockade. The next hard markers for traders are whether tanker traffic through Hormuz is interrupted again and whether benchmark crude holds near Wednesday’s highs in the next trading sessions. (cnbc.com) (abcnews.com)