UBS: EV share to hit 58% by 2035

UBS is forecasting that electrified vehicles will make up 58% of global new-car sales by 2035, counting battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and range-extended models. (investing.com) The bank’s latest public EV survey note was more cautious on the near term. UBS said it saw global EV penetration at 25% in 2025 and 41% by 2030, both lower than its prior forecast. (investing.com) (yolowire.com) UBS’s consumer work also showed softer sentiment than the industry’s long-run sales targets imply. In its ninth Evidence Lab survey of 10,500 people, 41% said they were likely to consider a battery-electric vehicle, down 5 percentage points from a year earlier. (investing.com) That gap matters because “electrified” is broader than pure battery cars. UBS’s 58% figure includes plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles, a format that uses a battery for driving but carries a gasoline engine to recharge it. (yolowire.com) (uploads.transportenvironment.org) The International Energy Agency is also projecting continued growth, though on a shorter horizon and with a narrower definition. Its Global EV Outlook 2025 said electric-car sales should surpass 20 million in 2025, or more than one in four cars sold worldwide, and exceed 40% market share by 2030 under current policy settings. (iea.org 1) (iea.org 2) The regional split is getting wider. China is still carrying much of the global volume, while the United States has moved in the opposite direction since federal purchase incentives ended in late 2025. (iea.org) (kbb.com) Cox Automotive said Americans bought 216,399 new EVs in the first quarter of 2026, down 27% from a year earlier. EVs were 5.8% of total new-vehicle sales, unchanged from the fourth quarter and far below the 10.6% peak reached in the third quarter of 2025. (coxautoinc.com) (kbb.com) Tesla still dominates that shrinking U.S. market. Cox data cited by multiple outlets put Tesla at about 54.2% of U.S. EV sales in Q1, while Tesla itself reported 358,023 global deliveries for the quarter on April 2. (insideevs.com) (ir.tesla.com) So the UBS call is less a claim that battery cars alone will take over quickly than a bet that several electric-drive formats keep gaining share over the next decade. The next test is whether weak U.S. demand proves temporary while global sales continue to expand. (investing.com) (iea.org)