Goldman: India down, crypto flagged

Goldman’s modelling behind the India call uses a 19.5x target P/E and assumes earnings growth of roughly 8% in calendar‑year 2026 and 13% in 2027 to derive its new index math. (livemint.com) The research team moved India from an “overweight” stance to “market weight,” tying the shift to a prolonged energy‑shock scenario after disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz that forced higher oil and gas forecasts. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) Goldman trimmed its India growth path — cutting the 2026 GDP outlook to 5.9% from prior estimates — and flagged a 50 basis‑point domestic policy‑rate risk as the Reserve Bank of India could tighten to counter imported inflation and a weakening rupee. (business-standard.com) The firm’s strategist explicitly warned of an “earnings‑downgrade” cycle for Indian corporates as higher energy costs widen the current‑account deficit toward about 2% of GDP and pressure corporate margins. (moneycontrol.com) On crypto, lead analyst James Yaro argued crypto‑linked equities have fallen roughly 46% since the October 2025 peak and that recent “volatile but flattish” price action matches historical peak‑to‑trough averages, making selective long ideas more attractive. (prismnews.com) Yaro flagged liquidity risks alongside the bottoming signal, noting lower trading volumes and citing materially weaker institutional ETF inflows — research tracking showed ETF inflows fell sharply (about a 73% drop to roughly $890M in March) even as tokenized treasuries drew large allocations. (forbes.com) The new callable note paperwork shows the issuance sits inside Goldman’s Medium‑Term Notes program with an expected original‑issue date of April 17, 2026, scheduled semiannual interest dates (April 17 and October 17) and standard call windows beginning in 2028. (publicnow.com)