China's trade softness and IMF cut

China’s export growth slowed sharply in March, and the International Monetary Fund now sees China’s economy expanding 4.4% in 2026. (english.customs.gov.cn) (economictimes.indiatimes.com) China’s customs data showed March exports rose 2.5% from a year earlier to $321.0 billion, while imports jumped 27.8% to $269.9 billion. Total trade reached $590.9 billion, up 12.7% from a year earlier. (english.customs.gov.cn) The March export increase was down from the combined 21.8% rise in January and February, and the import gain was up from 19.8% in the first two months of the year. CNBC reported the March export figure missed a Reuters poll forecast of 8.6%, while imports beat an 11.2% forecast. (cnbc.com) China releases January and February trade data together because the Lunar New Year shifts on the calendar and distorts factory and shipping activity. That makes March the first clean monthly read on trade after the holiday period. (cnbc.com) At a State Council Information Office briefing in Beijing on April 14, customs vice minister Wang Jun said global oil prices had seen “fierce fluctuation” and described the trade environment as “complex and severe.” The customs agency said China’s foreign trade still rose 15% in the first quarter of 2026. (english.scio.gov.cn) (cnbc.com) The International Monetary Fund’s new 4.4% forecast is lower than its 4.5% January forecast and below China’s 5.0% growth in 2025. The fund also said China’s growth could slow further to 4.0% in 2027 because of housing weakness, a shrinking labor force, weaker investment returns, and slower productivity growth. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) Trade has carried a large share of China’s recent growth as domestic demand stayed soft. CNBC said net exports accounted for about one-third of China’s economy last year, leaving the country exposed when overseas demand weakens or shipping and energy costs rise. (cnbc.com) Some analysts said the March slowdown does not point to a single cause. Bloomberg said the timing of the Lunar New Year and a high base from March 2025 likely exaggerated the drop in export growth, even as the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs and clouded demand. (bloomberg.com) For Beijing, the next test is whether exports can keep supporting growth after March’s slowdown and whether imports stay elevated once energy and freight costs settle. The trade data and the International Monetary Fund forecast now point in the same direction: slower momentum than China had at the start of 2026. (english.customs.gov.cn) (economictimes.indiatimes.com)