SpareBank1 raises Novo Nordisk target to DKK350 after oral Wegovy outperforms expectations

Novo Nordisk’s story changed on May 6. Not because the obesity market suddenly got simpler, but because the first real quarter of oral Wegovy sales came in much stronger than investors were braced for. That gave analysts fresh reason to revisit a stock that had been under pressure for months. SpareBank 1’s new DKK350 target is basically a bet that the market is still underestimating what a successful pill can do for Novo’s obesity franchise. ### What actually surprised people? The surprise was the size of the launch. In Q1 2026, oral Wegovy generated 2.26 billion Danish kroner in sales. Analysts tracked by Reuters had been looking for about 1.16 billion kroner. That is not a small beat — it is the kind of beat that forces people to rethink whether this is just a line extension or a real new growth leg. Novo also lifted its 2026 outlook, saying adjusted sales and operating profit should decline 4% to 12%, versus the earlier 5% to 13% decline range. (marketscreener.com) ### Why does the pill matter so much? Because pills can reach people injections never will. JPMorgan had already framed 2026 as the year oral GLP-1s open a new frontier — lower-friction treatment, broader access, and more willingness from hesitant patients to start therapy. That matters for Novo because the big question was never just “Can it sell another obesity drug?” It was “Can it grow the whole category again?” A strong pill launch points to yes. (cnbc.com) ### Is this stealing from injectable Wegovy? Early signs say not mainly. Mike Doustdar said Wegovy now has 65% of all new U.S. prescriptions in obesity, and several reports around the launch say most oral Wegovy users are new to GLP-1 treatment rather than switchers from injectables. That is the key distinction. If the pill mostly cannibalized the shot, the revenue story would be thinner. If it expands the treated population, the upside gets bigger fast. (jpmorgan.com) ### Why are analysts leaning in now? Because the market had started to assume Lilly would own the next phase. Eli Lilly launched Foundayo in April, and investors liked the idea that Lilly’s pill could be easier to take because it avoids some of Wegovy’s fasting and water rules. But Novo has the first-mover advantage, the Wegovy brand, and now actual launch data. SpareBank 1’s target hike fits that reset — the argument is that Novo’s pill is working well enough to defend share and maybe widen the market before Lilly fully scales. (cnbc.com) ### What is the real competitive edge here? Brand and distribution, basically. Novo did not launch an unknown molecule into a blank market. It launched a pill under the Wegovy name, into a category it helped build, with doctors and patients already familiar with what the brand stands for. That matters more than it sounds. In obesity drugs, trust, awareness, and access routing can move demand almost like consumer products do. (fiercepharma.com) A pill lowers the barrier further. ### So is Novo out of danger? No — but the setup looks better. Oral Wegovy is still early, Lilly is now in market, and pricing pressure has not gone away. Novo’s own guidance still points to adjusted declines in 2026, just less severe than before. The catch is that one strong quarter does not settle the oral GLP-1 race. It does, though, knock out the bear case that the pill launch would disappoint right away. (cnbc.com) ### What should investors watch next? Three things. First, whether oral Wegovy keeps pulling in genuinely new patients. Second, whether Lilly’s Foundayo closes the prescription gap as its launch matures. Third, whether Novo can carry the pill outside the U.S. in the second half of 2026, as planned. If those pieces hold, SpareBank 1’s target hike will look less like a reaction and more like the start of a broader rerating. (cnbc.com) ### Bottom line? This is not just an analyst target change. It is a sign that oral Wegovy’s launch may be strong enough to change the market’s mental model of Novo again — from a company losing momentum to one that may have found its next way to grow. (marketscreener.com) (cnbc.com)