MacKinnon’s playoff surge makes him early Conn Smythe favorite

Nathan MacKinnon’s Conn Smythe case is pretty simple at first glance — he’s been the best skater on one of the best teams left. But the interesting part is why this looks different from the usual “star player scores a lot” argument. Colorado opened the 2026 playoffs 6-0 and took a 2-0 second-round lead over Minnesota, and MacKinnon was driving almost every part of that surge. By May 7, NHL EDGE had already pushed him to the front of the playoff MVP conversation. ### Why is he the favorite this early? Because the box-score case and the tracking-data case point in the same direction. MacKinnon had 10 points — four goals and six assists — in his first six playoff games, and Colorado was still unbeaten at that point. That alone gets you into the Conn Smythe conversation. The extra push is that he wasn’t just finishing chances — he was creating pace, tilting the ice, and doing it against playoff checking. (nhl.com) ### What’s the number that really pops? Three straight three-point playoff games. That’s the kind of streak that instantly changes the tone of an MVP race, because it says this isn’t one hot night or one weak opponent matchup. It also put him in a very short historical group — only a handful of players have done that in the last 40 years. When a playoff run starts producing that kind of company, voters notice fast. (nhl.com) ### Why do the EDGE stats matter here? Because they explain the force behind the production. NHL EDGE had MacKinnon third in the playoffs in 20-plus mph speed bursts with 38 through six games. Basically, he isn’t just scoring after Colorado gets set up — he’s the thing breaking coverage in the first place. Fast players can look dangerous without actually controlling games. MacKinnon’s version is different. The speed is attached to real offense, zone pressure, and repeatable chaos. (newsday.com) ### Is this only about offense? No — and that’s a big reason the case feels sturdier than a normal points lead. In Game 2 against Minnesota, MacKinnon had a goal, two assists, and a couple of heavy hits, including one late on Matt Boldy. Colorado’s staff and teammates kept coming back to the same idea: he was dominant on both sides of the puck. That matters in Conn Smythe talk because the award usually goes to the player who feels unavoidable, not just productive. (nhl.com) ### How much does team success matter? A lot. Conn Smythe voting is individual, but it usually tracks deep playoff runs. That’s why Colorado’s start matters almost as much as MacKinnon’s numbers. The Avalanche were up 2-0 on Minnesota entering Game 3 on May 9, and they already looked like one of the cleanest, fastest teams in the bracket. If Colorado stalls in the next round, this cools off. If Colorado keeps rolling, MacKinnon’s lead gets easier to defend. (nhl.com) ### What about the regular season carryover? That’s part of why this feels believable instead of fluky. MacKinnon came in off a 53-goal regular season, led the league in several even-strength categories, and was already operating at an MVP level before the playoffs started. So this isn’t a new version of him showing up in May. It’s the same monster season getting louder on a bigger stage. (nhl.com) ### Who could still catch him? Plenty of players — especially if another team makes a longer run. Cale Makar is right there on his own roster, and a goalie can always hijack this award in the conference finals or Cup Final. But right now, MacKinnon has the cleanest combination of scoring, pace, and team momentum. That’s usually what an early favorite looks like. (nhl.com) ### Bottom line? MacKinnon isn’t just piling up points. He’s making Colorado look faster, meaner, and more inevitable than the teams across from it. That’s why the Conn Smythe buzz arrived early — and why it feels earned. (nhl.com)