Extreme Fear Index
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 17 — 'Extreme Fear' — a classic contrarian signal that historically flags buying opportunities when retail panic peaks. Social threads warn the obvious behavioral traps: fear makes traders skip setups or exit early; greed fuels profit‑chasing and bad entries — and the 'reformed gambler' video draws the same conclusion: detach emotionally and focus on process, not instant wins. (x.com) (x.com) (youtube.com)
CNN’s Fear & Greed API records the most recent observation with a timestamp of 2026-03-19T16:25:29Z and shows a previous close value of 18.2321428571429. (production.dataviz.cnn.io)) The gauge is a seven‑indicator composite given equal weight across market momentum, stock price strength (52‑week highs/lows), stock price breadth, the 5‑day put/call ratio, junk‑bond demand, market volatility (VIX), and safe‑haven demand. (cnn.com)) Shorter‑term trend data from CNN’s feed show a one‑week reading of 22.53 and a one‑month average of 39.56, compared with a one‑year figure of 21.6 — a sharp month‑to‑week deterioration. (production.dataviz.cnn.io)) Macro headlines behind the slide included a spike in oil and geopolitical risk tied to the Iran conflict; CNBC reported the Dow fell more than 750 points on March 18, 2026. (cnbc.com)) Market internals amplified the move: 247WallStreet recorded the Nasdaq down roughly 250 points on March 19 amid the same energy‑led risk‑off flows. (247wallst.com)) Academic work found the CNN Fear & Greed Index Granger‑caused U.S. equity returns in the 2011–2020 sample, suggesting the index carried measurable information about future returns in that period. (sciencedirect.com)) A comprehensive backtest covering January 2011–April 2025 from Mandala Wealth showed average S&P 500 returns after “Extreme Fear” days of +2.6% at one month, +5.9% at three months and +15.2% at 12 months, with positive outcome rates of 73%, 78% and 86% respectively; the write‑up also cites case studies such as Dec. 24, 2018 (score 3, +29% next 12 months) and March 12, 2020 (score 2, ~+70% next 12 months). (mandalawealth.com))
