Trump flies to Beijing summit

Trade is the center of this story. But the real point of the Beijing summit is control — or, more accurately, damage control. Donald Trump landed in Beijing on Wednesday, May 13, for two days of talks with Xi Jinping after months of tariff fights, legal setbacks, and rising military tension around Taiwan. Both sides still have a lot to fight about. What changed is that neither side seems to think a big rupture is worth the cost right now. ### Why is Trump in Beijing now? Because the old pressure campaign is not working the way Trump wanted. The summit runs May 14-15 and revives direct leader-to-leader diplomacy after the two sides reached a fragile truce in Busan last October. Beijing wants a stable external environment while it manages slower growth and the fallout from the Iran war. Trump wants visible wins he can point to at home — especially on prices, exports, and the idea that he can still cut deals personally. (apnews.com) ### What is actually on the table? Not a grand bargain. Basically, think soybeans, beef, Boeing, and maybe a formal mechanism to keep trade talks from blowing up every few weeks. One widely discussed option is extending the October trade truce. Another is a “Board of Trade” style channel for regular economic talks. That is a much narrower agenda than the first-term version of Trump’s China policy, which aimed at structural changes inside China’s economy. (apnews.com) ### Why are beef and soybeans such a big deal? Because they are politically useful and easy to count. U.S. farmers and meat producers want China buying again, and Beijing can offer purchases without giving ground on the harder fights over technology, industrial policy, or Taiwan. Beef matters in a very specific way here: more than 400 U.S. beef plants have lost export eligibility to China over the past year after registrations lapsed, and the industry wants those licenses renewed. (wsls.com) U.S. beef exports to China had previously peaked at $1.7 billion in 2022. ### What happened to Trump’s tariff leverage? The courts cut it down. In February, the Supreme Court said Trump could not use the emergency-powers law he had relied on for sweeping tariffs. Then on May 7, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against his replacement 10% global tariff under Section 122. An appeals court has temporarily kept that tariff in place for now, but the broader point stands — Trump’s biggest unilateral weapon looks a lot shakier than it did a few months ago. (finance.yahoo.com) ### Does that mean China has the stronger hand? On this trip, probably yes. Beijing is hosting. Beijing can offer symbolic purchases. And Beijing knows Trump is under pressure from inflation and from the wider costs of the Iran conflict. That does not mean Xi can dictate terms. It does mean Trump is arriving with less legal and economic coercive power than the headline “trade war” suggests. (cbsnews.com) ### Where does Taiwan fit in? As the issue both sides cannot solve and do not want to let dominate the visit. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan remain a central Chinese grievance, and reports out of Washington suggest Trump has signaled unusual openness to rethinking parts of U.S. support for the island. That alarms Taiwan’s backers in Washington because even a rhetorical shift can look like bargaining away deterrence for short-term trade calm. (washingtonpost.com) ### Why does the Iran war keep showing up in this story? Because it changes the bargaining environment. China buys large amounts of Iranian oil, and the war has added energy risk and diplomatic strain to an already brittle U.S.-China relationship. It also gives both leaders a reason to keep the summit from collapsing. When global energy markets are jumpy, another U.S.-China shock is the last thing either capital needs. (usnews.com) ### So what should count as success? A small, boring outcome. That sounds underwhelming, but turns out that is the point. If Trump leaves Beijing with the truce extended, some agricultural or aircraft purchases announced, and no new Taiwan crisis or tariff spiral, both sides will treat that as a win. The bottom line is simple — this summit is not about ending the rivalry. It is about keeping it inside the guardrails a little longer. (apnews.com) (wsls.com)