National Industrial Rents Rise Amid Uncertainty
National industrial rents are up 5.1% YoY to $8.94/SF, but vacancy is at 9.6% amid trade policy uncertainty impacting port-driven markets, according to Pete Quinn. The information was part of a Commercial Cafe report.
The national average for industrial rents is $8.94/SF as of January 2026, a 5.1% increase year-over-year. However, new leases are being signed at an average of $10.07/SF, $1.17 higher than in-place rents. Vacancy rates have also increased, reaching 9.6% nationally after a 160-basis-point increase since January 2025. Trade policy uncertainty, including potential tariffs on port cranes, is contributing to market instability. A recent Supreme Court decision reversing "Liberation Day" tariffs adds to the volatility. The impact of these policies is influencing construction costs, property values, rental affordability, and borrowing costs. Despite the uncertainty, demand for industrial space is expected to strengthen through 2026 before moderating in 2027. Net absorption is projected to reach 345.9 million square feet in 2026. E-commerce growth and consumer spending continue to support demand. Construction activity is cooling, with 281 million square feet of new industrial space delivered in 2025, a 35% decrease from 2024. Vacancy stabilized at 7.1% at the end of 2025. Experts suggest the market may be nearing peak vacancy.
