Memorial Day travel forecast 45 million

AAA said 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period, a forecast that covers Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25. The projection is slightly above last year’s level and marks the highest Memorial Day travel volume AAA has recorded. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA said road trips will account for the biggest share of the holiday movement. The group projects 39.1 million people will travel by car, while about 3.66 million are expected to fly. (wsjm.com) (weather.gov) Weather is adding uncertainty to that surge. The National Weather Service said a multi-day heavy rainfall event is setting up from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley and will peak over the holiday weekend, with scattered thunderstorms also developing in other regions. ### How big is the Memorial Day travel surge this year? AAA said the 45 million figure includes all domestic travelers going at least 50 miles from home during the five-day holiday window. (newsroom.aaa.com) The organization said the total is slightly higher than in 2025, when 44.8 million people traveled over Memorial Day. (wsjm.com) AAA said the forecast continues a run of elevated holiday travel even with higher gas prices and airfares. ABC News, citing AAA, described the total as record-breaking for the holiday. (weather.gov) ### How many people are expected to drive rather than fly? AAA said 39.1 million travelers will go by car, making driving by far the dominant mode for the weekend. Air travel is expected to account for about 3.66 million passengers, according to AAA figures cited by ABC and Yahoo Travel. (newsroom.aaa.com) INRIX data cited by USA Today said the best way to avoid the worst road congestion is to leave early in the morning or later at night. AAA’s travel guidance for the weekend also points to Friday as one of the heaviest periods for road traffic. (abcnews.com) ### What does North Carolina’s forecast show? AAA Carolinas said on May 19 that more than 1.3 million North Carolinians are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home over Memorial Day weekend, setting a state record for the holiday. Most of those travelers — more than 1.2 million — are expected to drive. (wsjm.com) Local outlets in North Carolina reported the same pattern: strong demand for road trips despite higher fuel costs. AAA Carolinas said the travel period runs from Thursday through Memorial Day Monday. (usatoday.com) ### Where could weather disrupt plans? The National Weather Service said heavy rainfall is expected to intensify from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley during the holiday weekend. Its forecast also points to thunderstorms in parts of the central and eastern United States. A National Weather Service forecast discussion issued Thursday in Greenville-Spartanburg said conditions were trending “wet and cool” through the Memorial Day holiday weekend in parts of the Carolinas. (newsroom.acg.aaa.com) That regional outlook matches broader warnings that rain could affect travelers across sections of the East and Southeast. ### Which days look busiest for travelers? The Federal Aviation Administration expects Thursday, May 21, to be the busiest day of the weekend to fly, according to Yahoo Travel. American Airlines said Friday, May 22, is expected to be its busiest day of the holiday stretch. (weather.gov) AAA’s holiday window runs through Monday, May 25. The next major test for the forecast will come as airports, highways and regional travel hubs process the heaviest outbound traffic from Thursday into Friday and return traffic later in the weekend. (newsroom.aaa.com) (travel.yahoo.com) (forecast.weather.gov)