Trump pushes U.S. energy sales in Beijing talks with Xi

Energy is the easy part of this Trump-Xi meeting. That’s why it’s suddenly at the center of the agenda. Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 for talks with Xi Jinping scheduled for May 14 and 15, and one of the clearest things on the table is a simple trade bargain: China buys more U.S. oil and gas, and both sides get to claim progress without touching the hardest fights first. ### Why energy? Because it is concrete, fast, and politically legible. If Beijing agrees to buy more U.S. LNG or crude, Trump can point to export gains and narrower trade deficits. Xi can frame the same move as pragmatic supply management during a tense global energy moment. It is much easier to headline tanker cargoes than to solve semiconductor controls, Taiwan, or national-security distrust. (money.usnews.com) ### What got broken? Tariffs did. The trade war effectively shut down most Chinese imports of U.S. oil and LNG. In 2024, before Trump returned to office, those imports were worth about $8.4 billion. Then the numbers fell off a cliff. China’s U.S. LNG intake dropped from 4.15 million tons in 2024 to just 26,000 tons in 2025 after a 25% tariff. Chinese imports of U.S. crude stopped after May 2025 as a 20% tariff kicked in. (money.usnews.com) ### Why does LNG matter more than oil? Because the trade is already half-built. Chinese companies like PetroChina and CNOOC signed long-term contracts with U.S. exporters between 2021 and 2023, and Rystad estimates around 12 million tons are contracted for delivery this year. The weird part is that some of those cargoes have been redirected to Europe instead of landing in China, basically to dodge tariffs. Remove the tariff, and some of that trade can restart quickly. (money.usnews.com) ### So would China suddenly buy a lot more? Maybe some more — but probably not a flood. U.S. LNG looks more competitive if Beijing lifts the 25% tariff, especially with global gas markets still distorted by the Iran war. But demand inside China is not exactly booming, so analysts do not expect a giant surge just because the politics improve. Oil is even less straightforward, since the U.S. has never been one of China’s core crude suppliers and China has already replaced those barrels with imports from places like Canada and Brazil. (money.usnews.com) ### Why not just do a bigger grand bargain? That is where this gets messy. The summit is also wrapped up in fights over AI-chip sales, tariffs, and reports that Beijing has dangled a possible $1 trillion investment push into the U.S. if Washington eases some restrictions. The White House has called the idea that it would compromise national security “baseless and false,” but the backlash on the American right shows how narrow Trump’s room to maneuver really is. (money.usnews.com) Energy purchases are easy to sell. Large-scale Chinese investment is not. ### What do Americans think? They are not in a forgiving mood. New NPR-Chicago Council-Ipsos polling shows most Americans see China as a rival or adversary, and more by far view the threat as economic than military — 56% to 29%. Most also think tariffs have hurt both economies. That creates a strange lane for Trump: voters are skeptical of China, but they are also not thrilled with the costs of permanent trade war. (thehill.com) ### Why are expectations still low? Because both governments can see the same reality. A limited deal on energy or farm goods is plausible. A reset is not. The broader relationship is still defined by technology controls, security rivalry, and mutual suspicion. Even analysts watching the summit closely have framed it less as a breakthrough moment and more as an attempt to keep the relationship from getting worse. (nprillinois.org) ### Bottom line? If this meeting produces anything tangible, energy is the most likely place it happens. That would be real, but modest. The bigger story is that Washington and Beijing are looking for a win small enough that neither side has to trust the other very much. (money.usnews.com) (cfr.org)