Trump and Xi signal likely extension of tariff truce after Beijing talks

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping opened a two-day summit in Beijing on Thursday, putting a fragile U.S.-China tariff truce at the center of the most closely watched meeting between the two leaders since last year’s trade war. The talks at the Great Hall of the People come after months of efforts by both governments to keep a 2025 de-escalation from unraveling. Trump arrived with a delegation that included U.S. business leaders, while Xi used the opening session to frame the meeting as a test of whether the two powers could avoid deeper confrontation. Public signals from both sides pointed to continuity rather than a breakthrough. ### Why are markets focused on the tariff truce instead of a big new deal? May 12, 2025, is the key date for the current trade framework. The White House said then that Washington and Beijing had reached an initial agreement in Geneva that included a 90-day pause and a 115% reduction in reciprocal tariff levels from the triple-digit rates imposed during the 2025 trade fight. August 11, 2025, is the date the Trump administration formally extended that suspension. A White House fact sheet said the suspension of heightened tariffs on China would continue until November 10, 2025, while a 10% reciprocal tariff remained in effect and other U.S. tariff measures stayed in place. (whitehouse.gov) Thursday’s opening session in Beijing was presented against that backdrop. Reuters reported that both sides were eager to maintain the truce struck last October, under which Trump suspended triple-digit tariffs and Xi stepped back from moves that threatened global rare-earth supplies. CNBC and CBS both reported that traders and analysts were looking for stabilization and the preservation of the existing arrangement rather than a sweeping new accord. (whitehouse.gov) ### What did Trump and Xi actually say in the room? Beijing’s Great Hall of the People provided the public stage for carefully positive language. Trump said the relationship between the two countries would be “better than ever before,” according to official broadcast footage cited by CNBC, and he told Xi the United States was eager to do business with China, CBS reported. (thestar.com.my) Xi used a broader formulation. Xi said “a stable bilateral relationship is good for the world” and told Trump that the two countries should be “partners, not rivals,” according to CBS. CNBC reported that Xi also raised the question of whether the United States and China could avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” a phrase used to describe the risk of conflict between an established power and a rising one. (cnbc.com) ### What else is on the agenda besides tariffs? Iran, Taiwan and rare earths were all part of the meeting’s published agenda. Reuters said the talks were set to cover the trade truce, the Iran war and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, while CNBC said tariffs, Taiwan, Iran and artificial intelligence were expected topics over the two days. (cbsnews.com) Trump’s delegation underscored the commercial angle. Reuters reported that Elon Musk and Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang were among the executives traveling with Trump, reflecting U.S. corporate interest in resolving market-access and supply-chain disputes with China. CBS reported that the administration has sought to preserve access to rare earths and expand opportunities for American exports including food. (thestar.com.my) ### Why do expectations look lower than they did earlier? Thursday’s choreography suggested a narrower objective. Reuters described the summit as focused on securing economic wins and maintaining a fragile truce, while CNBC cited Harvard professor Graham Allison saying the likely headline word would be “stabilization.” (thestar.com.my) The balance of leverage has also shifted, according to named analysts. Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told CNBC that China had pushed back against much of Trump’s earlier tariff pressure, and Ali Wyne of International Crisis Group told Reuters that Washington now appeared more openly to acknowledge China’s status than it did during Trump’s 2017 visit. Those are analysts’ assessments, not positions stated by either government. (thestar.com.my) ### What should readers watch on May 15? Friday, May 15, is the next concrete milestone in Beijing. Reuters said Trump and Xi were scheduled to continue talks with tea and lunch after Thursday’s meetings, a Temple of Heaven visit and a state banquet. CNBC likewise reported that discussions were set to run through Friday. (cnbc.com) Any extension of the tariff suspension, any reference to the 10% baseline tariff, and any announced commercial orders will be the clearest markers of what the summit produced. The next formal signals are likely to come from White House statements, Chinese state media and any joint readouts issued after the leaders finish meetings on May 15. (whitehouse.gov) (thestar.com.my)