Oil spikes on geopolitics
Oil jumped sharply overnight — Brent hit $106 and WTI topped $103 — after renewed Middle East uncertainty and remarks from President Trump, reversing earlier losses and sending markets into a volatile swirl. Traders call it a “geopolitical knife fight,” and OPEC+’s monitoring panel is set to meet on April 5 to review output policy amid pressure from multiyear low production levels. Analysts note a 36% price surge in March and say prices could swing toward $110 or back to $90 depending on inventory releases and diplomatic progress — a sustained rally would lift global inflation and choke growth. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (rigzone.com) (reuters.com) (fxempire.com) (fxstreet.com)
Front‑month Brent logged a record monthly gain of 64% in March, LSEG data show — the largest monthly jump since records began in June 1988. (cnbc.com) President Trump told the nation the Iran campaign could take “two to three weeks” more and vowed stepped‑up strikes, remarks that Reuters reported coincided with near‑7% intraday rises in Brent and WTI futures. (money.usnews.com) Russia’s foreign ministry and OPEC+ sources say the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled to meet online on April 5 to review the recent price rise and recommend production policy steps. (tass.com) The IEA’s March Oil Market Report estimated global supply plunged by roughly 8 million barrels per day in March and that Gulf producers have cut at least 10 million bpd, creating what the agency called the largest supply disruption in history. (iea.blob.core.windows.net) U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by about 5.45 million barrels for the week ending March 27 in the EIA weekly release on April 1, a larger than expected build that market participants flagged as a short‑term dampener on price rallies. (investing.com) Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 price outlook and warned Brent could reach roughly $110 in March–April if flow disruptions persist, while Macquarie analysts told Reuters Brent could hit as much as $150 if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut through April. (bloomberg.com) Commerzbank economists note U.S. PCE inflation was already around a 2.8% headline rate and 3.1% core rate before the recent energy shock, and they warn sustained higher crude would lift headline inflation and weigh on growth. (commerzbank.de)
