Hybrid‑threats index

A Deutsche Bundesbank paper published in March says cyberattacks, sabotage, coercion and disinformation now move together closely enough to show up in demand, trade and financial conditions. (bundesbank.de) The paper, “Geopolitical Hybrid Threats,” was written by Norbert Metiu and Martin Völpel and released as Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 11/2026 on March 30, 2026. It builds a Geopolitical Hybrid Threat index from newspaper coverage of cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, espionage, economic and political coercion, disinformation and related activity. (bundesbank.de) The index rises sharply from the mid-2010s and moves above levels seen in the late Cold War, according to the paper’s abstract and summary. The authors report that higher readings are followed by weaker business investment and trade in more exposed sectors. (bundesbank.de) Financial conditions are the price and availability of money — interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices and exchange rates that shape how easily households and firms can borrow and spend. The Bank for International Settlements said in its 2025 annual report that cross-border financial linkages now make those conditions harder for central banks to steer with domestic policy alone. (bis.org) The Bundesbank paper places hybrid threats inside that macro picture. Its argument is that repeated cyber and coercive shocks do not just damage a target directly; they also raise uncertainty, curb demand and tighten financing in affected markets. (bundesbank.de) That claim lands as central banks are already treating cyber risk as a financial-stability problem, not only an information-technology problem. The International Monetary Fund said in April 2024 that nearly one-fifth of reported cyber incidents over the past two decades hit financial firms, and that extreme losses have risen to at least $2.5 billion in the tail of the distribution. (imf.org) The International Monetary Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report also said the number of cyberattacks had almost doubled since before the COVID-19 pandemic. It warned that attacks on major institutions or common service providers could disrupt payments, custody and other critical financial services. (imf.org) Other recent research points in the same direction at the firm level. A Centre for Economic Policy Research column in March 2025 said companies with greater cyber exposure underperformed peers in the stock market, extending evidence that cyber risk can spill from single firms to sectors and profits. (cepr.org) The Bundesbank index does not say every slowdown or market selloff comes from hybrid threats, and newspaper-based measures can reflect changes in coverage as well as changes in events. The paper’s contribution is narrower: it offers a single gauge for shocks that had often been studied separately, then tests whether that gauge lines up with weaker demand and tighter financing. (bundesbank.de) For policy makers, the paper turns cyberattacks and coercion into something closer to an inflation or credit shock — a force that can hit output, trade and borrowing conditions at the same time. For companies, it suggests the cost of hybrid pressure shows up not only in damaged systems but in delayed investment and thinner demand. (bundesbank.de)