GOP Leads Early California Governor Polling

- A recent Emerson College poll shows Republican and former Fox News host Steve Hilton leading the crowded field of candidates with 17% support. He is closely followed by Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell and Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who are tied for second at 14%. - The Democratic field remains highly fragmented without a clear frontrunner, and a significant portion of the electorate, 21%, is still undecided. Democratic voters have not yet coalesced around a single candidate, with 22% remaining undecided within the party. - Despite the early GOP lead in polling, Democrats maintain a significant voter registration advantage in California, with about 45% of registered voters identifying as Democrats compared to 25% as Republicans, according to 2025 data. - In the 2022 gubernatorial election, incumbent Democrat Gavin Newsom defeated Republican State Senator Brian Dahle by a margin of 59.2% to 40.8%. Newsom also comfortably survived a recall election in 2021 with 61.9% of voters opting to keep him in office. - Republicans have not won a statewide election in California since 2006. The last time a Republican won the governorship was in 2003, when Arnold Schwarzenegger won a recall election to replace then-Governor Gray Davis. - Economic issues are a primary concern for California voters, with a majority stating they have considered leaving the state due to the high cost of living. Housing, utilities, and groceries were cited as the biggest strains on household budgets. - In a February 2026 poll, 44% of California voters approved of the job Governor Gavin Newsom is doing, while 45% disapproved, marking a three-point decrease in his approval rating since December 2025. - Republican Steve Hilton has shown strong fundraising, raising approximately $4.1 million in the latter half of 2025, surpassing several key Democratic opponents. However, Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer has poured $28 million of his own money into the race.