India crude stocks fall 15%

India’s crude stock draw is a supply-and-runs story. Kpler estimates cited by Indian media put inventories at about 91 million barrels on May 15, down from 107 million barrels at the end of February, after disruption around the Strait of Hormuz slowed arrivals while refiners continued operating. India’s crude imports have averaged about 4.5 million barrels a day over the past two and a half months, down from nearly 5 million barrels before the conflict, according to Kpler figures reported by the Times of India and Economic Times. ### How big is the draw, and what exactly is being counted? Kpler’s estimate puts the decline at roughly 15%, based on crude held in strategic petroleum reserves, refinery inventories and commercial storage. The figure excludes pipeline stocks, according to the reports. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) Sujata Sharma, a joint secretary in India’s petroleum ministry, said the government’s own stock calculation is broader. The official estimate includes crude cargoes already loaded on ships bound for India as well as pipeline inventories, she said, which is why New Delhi has said the country has enough crude for as much as 60 days of national consumption. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) ### Why are stocks falling if India still says fuel supplies are adequate? India consumes about 5 million barrels of oil a day, and Kpler’s narrower inventory estimate implies about 18 days of cover at current demand. The government, using its wider methodology, has said supplies remain sufficient and refineries are operating at optimum levels. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) The gap comes from refinery behavior. Nikhil Dubey, Kpler’s lead analyst for refining, said refinery operating rates have not fallen in proportion to the decline in imports, meaning processors are bridging part of the shortfall by drawing down existing inventories, most likely from refinery storage. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) ### What do the import numbers show in official Indian data? PPAC, the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell, shows India imported 20.986 million metric tons of crude in April and 19.002 million metric tons in March in the current report on its import-export page. That official table shows the month-by-month flow of crude and petroleum products, though it does not itself attribute the recent decline to the Hormuz disruption. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) PPAC’s archive page shows the government has been publishing monthly snapshot and indigenous crude reports with a lag of days to weeks. That means the next official releases will be the place to watch for confirmation of whether lower arrivals begin feeding through into refinery throughput or product balances. ### Did New Delhi order a fuel-price increase? India’s retail petrol and diesel prices are market-determined, according to the petroleum ministry’s pricing page, and public-sector oil marketing companies take pricing decisions. (ppac.gov.in) Indian Oil’s retail page says pump prices are revised daily at 6 a.m., though the page opened in this search session does not itself show a nationwide 3-rupee increase. (ppac.gov.in) Because that specific 3-rupee figure was not independently verifiable from the official pricing pages available here, the clearer verified point is that any pass-through would come through the oil marketing companies’ daily pricing mechanism rather than a formal administered-price order for petrol or diesel. ### What changes next if imports do not recover? The Times of India report said analysts expect refiners may eventually have to lower processing rates if the disruption persists and crude availability stays reduced. (mopng.gov.in) An industry executive cited there said the drawdown would likely have been steeper without maintenance at Nayara Energy’s 400,000-barrel-per-day Gujarat refinery in April. (iocl.com) May 16 is the next visible checkpoint on PPAC’s archive schedule, which lists the publication of monthly snapshot data. The next official releases from PPAC and statements from the petroleum ministry will show whether crude imports, refinery runs and product availability remain stable. (ppac.gov.in) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)