Hurricane season begins June 1

The Atlantic hurricane season opened on Monday, June 1, with federal and local forecasters telling coastal residents to prepare even as projections call for fewer storms than usual this year. NOAA said last week it expects a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing El Niño and other atmospheric conditions that can disrupt storm formation. Local television outlets in the Carolinas, Texas and Florida echoed that message on June 1, pairing quieter-season forecasts with warnings that a single landfall can still cause major damage. The Atlantic season runs from June 1 through November 30, the same six-month window used each year by forecasters and emergency managers. NOAA’s official outlook gives the season a 55% chance of being below normal, a 35% chance of being near normal and a 10% chance of being above normal. The agency forecast 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes and 1 to 3 could reach major-hurricane strength. ### What exactly started on June 1? June 1 marked the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, not a prediction that storms would immediately form that day. The season covers the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center use the period because it captures the months when the vast majority of Atlantic tropical cyclones develop. (noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center had already been monitoring the tropics before June 1. USA Today reported that forecasters were watching conditions ahead of the formal start of the season, underscoring that tropical threats can emerge outside the calendar window even though most activity happens within it. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### Why are forecasters calling for fewer storms this year? NOAA said El Niño is a central reason the 2026 season is expected to be quieter. El Niño typically increases upper-level winds over parts of the Atlantic, creating wind shear that can tear apart or weaken developing tropical systems before they organize. NOAA’s outlook also cited weaker West African monsoon conditions and atmospheric stability as factors that could limit storm activity. (usatoday.com) Yale Climate Connections and local television meteorologists described the same mechanism in simpler terms on June 1, saying a strengthening El Niño can suppress Atlantic development. FOX Weather also reported that Saharan dust was moving across parts of the basin as the season began, another factor forecasters watch because dry air can inhibit storm growth. (noaa.gov) ### If the forecast is lower, why are officials still warning people? Houston-area forecasters and other local outlets said the seasonal outlook does not reduce the need for preparation. KHOU, Click2Houston and other stations told residents that “it only takes one storm” to produce flooding, wind damage and prolonged power outages. That phrase has become a standard warning because seasonal totals do not predict where any one storm will go. (yaleclimateconnections.org) Florida and Gulf Coast coverage carried the same message on June 1. USA Today reported that officials were warning residents to stay ready despite a below-normal forecast, while FOX 26 Houston said a below-average season does not mean Texas will avoid a landfalling storm. (msn.com) ### What numbers are forecasters using as the benchmark? NOAA’s 8-to-14-storm forecast sits below the long-term average for the Atlantic basin. WUFT reported that an average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. That comparison helps explain why forecasters are describing 2026 as below normal rather than inactive. (usatoday.com) The first names on the 2026 Atlantic list are Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal, according to FOX 26 Houston. Those names are assigned only if storms reach at least tropical-storm strength, meaning sustained winds of 39 mph or higher. ### Where should people watch as the season unfolds? The National Hurricane Center remains the main federal source for tropical outlooks, watches, warnings and forecast tracks throughout the season. (wuft.org) NOAA’s seasonal outlook is a broad guide for total activity, while the hurricane center handles storm-by-storm monitoring as systems develop. (fox26houston.com) November 30 is the scheduled end of the Atlantic hurricane season, and forecasters say the most active stretch typically comes later, from late August into October. Until then, coastal residents will be watching for the first named Atlantic storm, Arthur, if and when one forms. (wral.com) (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)