Oil market lost its shock cushion
Analysts say global oil arrivals fell roughly 7 million barrels per day below the three‑year average last week, meaning the market has ‘lost its shock cushion’ after sustained Strait of Hormuz disruptions. That tighter supply raises the risk of fuel spikes and secondary cost shocks for manufacturing and logistics. (invezz.com)
Rystad Energy calculates the disruption removed about 17.8 million barrels per day of trade flow through the Strait of Hormuz, of which roughly 14.2 million bpd was crude and condensates. (rystadenergy.com(rystadenergy.com)) The International Energy Agency coordinated a 400‑million‑barrel emergency release from more than 30 nations, with the United States committing 172 million barrels to be drawn over 120 days (about 1.4 million bpd). (cnbc.com(cnbc.com)) Bloomberg reports Gulf producers’ cuts have removed roughly 6% of global output as tanker traffic avoids Hormuz, while Saudi Arabian shipments through the Red Sea climbed to record levels this month to bypass the chokepoint. (bloomberg.com(bloomberg.com)) UNCTAD’s trade analysis shows the Strait carried about 20 million barrels per day in 2024—approximately 25% of global seaborne oil trade—with crude and condensate at 14 million bpd and refined products at 6 million bpd. (unctad.org(unctad.org)) The U.S. EIA’s Short‑Term Energy Outlook notes that if Hormuz flows resume, global inventories could increase by an average 1.9 million bpd in 2026, and it forecasts Brent to average $70 per barrel in 4Q26 and $64 per barrel in 2027. (eia.gov(eia.gov)) Commerzbank’s commodity desk forecasts Brent near $90 per barrel by the end of Q2 under a scenario where hostilities stop in May, a projection cited in market commentary this week. (invezz.com(invezz.com)) Analysts explicitly name potential secondary triggers now capable of igniting sharper price moves—stoppage at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), hurricane‑season refinery outages, and infrastructure hits at Yanbu or Fujairah—because spare capacity is increasingly inaccessible behind the closed Strait. (invezz.com(invezz.com))
