Funcas says AI could affect 3.5M jobs

Spain just got a sharp new warning about AI and work — and the headline number needs a little unpacking. Funcas, a Madrid economic think tank, said on April 30 that AI could destroy between 1.7 million and 2.3 million jobs in Spain over the next decade in its central scenario, while also boosting the productivity of 2.8 million to 3.5 million workers whose jobs would stay in place. That is where the “3.5 million” figure comes from. It is not a clean count of jobs disappearing. It is a count of workers whose roles could be materially changed by AI. (funcas.es) ### What actually came out? The new document is a Funcas working paper by Francisco Rodríguez-Fernández, published in April 2026, focused on Spain’s labor market, occupational exposure to AI, and how fast businesses are adopting the technology. Funcas also put out a press note on April 30 summarizing the headline findings and the ten-year horizon — 2025 to 2035. (funcas.es) ### Where does the 3.5 million number come from? This is the key bit. Funcas splits the impact into two buckets. One bucket is displacement — jobs that disappear because AI can take over enough of the underlying tasks. The other is complementarity — workers wh(funcas.es)ff.” Basically, it often means the job survives but the workflow changes. (funcas.es) ### How big is the job-loss estimate? In the central case, Funcas sees gross job destruction of 1.7 million to 2.3 million over ten years. It also says new AI-linked occupations could offset much of that. The press note points to roughly 1.61 million new jobs tied to AI, leaving a net loss of about 400,000 in the c(funcas.es)lion. (funcas.es) ### Which workers look most exposed? Not factory workers first — which is what people often assume. Funcas says the pressure is concentrated among administrative employees and mid- to higher-level technicians. That fits the broader AI pattern. Generative AI is strongest at text, analysis, coding, documentation, and other cognitive office tasks. It hits spreadsheets and reports before it hits plumbing and elder care. (funcas.es) ### Why is Spain dealing with this now? Because adoption is no longer hypothetical. Funcas says 21.1% of Spanish companies with 10 or more employees were already using at least one AI technology in the first quarter of 2025, up from 12.4% in 2023. That is an 8.7-point jump in two years. The think tank’s argument is(funcas.es) few years. (funcas.es) ### Is Spain unusually exposed? Somewhat — but not in the simplest way. Funcas places Spain at a medium-high level of AI exposure versus the OECD, with adoption at 27.4% against a 26% average. But it also says Spain’s direct automation risk is lower than the OECD average — 5.9% versus 12% — partly because the count(funcas.es)ped out” and more “Spain gets reshuffled.” (funcas.es) ### Why does this matter beyond Spain? Because this is the version of the AI debate many countries are heading toward. The real near-term fight is not robots replacing everybody overnight. It is employers redesigning jobs fast enough that some workers get boosted, some get squeezed, and retraining has to happen whi(funcas.es)g it all means unemployment. Funcas is describing a labor market where AI changes millions of jobs, eliminates a large share of some roles, creates new ones, and pushes office work into a long redesign cycle. (funcas.es)