OPEC+ Considers Oil Output Hike
Following the assassination of Iran's leader, OPEC+ is reportedly considering a larger-than-expected oil output increase to stabilize markets. The move comes after a three-month pause on hikes, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE already ramping up exports in anticipation of supply disruptions from the escalating Mideast crisis.
The current pause on OPEC+ production hikes was decided on November 30, 2025, to extend through the first quarter of 2026, citing seasonally lower demand. This decision followed a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025. The alliance is currently withholding a significant volume of oil from the market through a series of cuts, including voluntary adjustments of 2.2 million and 1.65 million barrels per day. Eight member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE, have been meeting monthly to review market conditions. In a move to preemptively stabilize markets, Saudi Arabia increased its crude shipments in February to approximately 7.3 million barrels per day, the highest level since April 2023 and a jump of over 400,000 barrels per day from January. The UAE also boosted its February shipments to near-record levels. Iran, the subject of the market turmoil, had also increased its own crude and condensate exports in February to 2.2 million barrels per day. This marks a 50% increase from the average of the previous three months, seen as a move to monetize production before any potential escalation. The geopolitical tensions have already impacted global oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising to nearly $73 a barrel on February 27, their highest point in almost eight months. A key group of eight OPEC+ ministers is scheduled to meet virtually today, March 1, 2026, where they are expected to discuss production policy for April and beyond in light of the recent events.
