Goldman Sachs Raises Gas Price Forecasts

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Samantha Dart and Frederik Witzemann, initially raised their Q2 2026 TTF price projection to 45 euros per megawatt-hour, a significant jump from the previous 36 euros. By March 9, 2026, they further increased the forecast to €63 per megawatt hour. This upward revision accounts for the extended halt in LNG exports from Qatar. QatarEnergy halted all LNG production following strikes on two key facilities, which were attributed to Iranian drone attacks. The halt in Qatari LNG production and products effectively choked off a major supply of fuel globally. The firm expects exports to remain completely stopped until late March, with a gradual resumption in April. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint, sees roughly one-fifth of globally traded petroleum pass through it, with limited viable alternatives. Disruptions there could threaten system-scale supply. Geopolitical tensions and potential attacks on tankers have amplified concerns. A month-long halt in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could more than double European gas prices, potentially triggering the most serious shock to EU gas markets since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As of March 3, 2026, European gas storage facilities were slightly over 30% full. Middle Eastern sources account for about 5% of European gas imports.