NOAA to announce 2026 hurricane outlook Lakeland

NOAA is set to publish its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on Thursday, May 21, at a news conference in Lakeland, Florida. The agency said the 11 a.m. ET briefing at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center will cover expected storm activity, the factors shaping the season and preparedness advice ahead of the June 1 start of the Atlantic season. (noaa.gov) The release comes as outside forecasters have pointed to a quieter Atlantic than in some recent years, though not an inactive one. (wtsp.com) WTSP, citing forecasts issued ahead of NOAA’s announcement, said projections this week generally clustered around a slightly below-average season, including roughly 13 named storms and three major hurricanes. (noaa.gov) ### Where and when is NOAA making the announcement? Thursday’s briefing is scheduled for 11 a.m. ET at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, and NOAA said it will also be available virtually. The agency said speakers would outline anticipated activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and discuss what could influence storm development. (noaa.gov) Lakeland is home to NOAA’s aircraft operations base, which supports the agency’s hurricane reconnaissance missions. NOAA’s advisory said the session would also include advice on how the public can prepare before the season officially opens. ### What are forecasters saying before NOAA’s official outlook? (wtsp.com) USA Today and local broadcasters reported ahead of the announcement that early seasonal forecasts had leaned toward a slightly below-average Atlantic season. WTSP said one estimate cited by forecasters this week called for about 13 named storms, with around half reaching hurricane strength and three becoming major hurricanes. (noaa.gov) Louisiana State Climatologist Jay Grymes said in comments carried this week that the season looked “average, perhaps slightly less.” That estimate matched the broad range cited in pre-outlook coverage, while still pointing to multiple hurricanes and at least several stronger systems. (noaa.gov) ### Does a lower seasonal forecast change the risk to people on the coast? June 1 remains the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and November 30 remains the end, regardless of whether NOAA’s final outlook lands above, near or below average. NOAA said Thursday’s briefing would include preparedness guidance, and the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook page says routine Atlantic outlook issuance resumes on June 1, with special outlooks issued earlier if needed. (wtsp.com) The National Hurricane Center has also said it is not forecasting tropical development in its routine Atlantic outlooks until the season begins, unless conditions warrant a special update. That means the seasonal outlook is a broad forecast for basin-wide activity, not a prediction of where any one storm might go. (wtsp.com) ### What is changing in the hurricane “cone” this year? The National Hurricane Center said its 2026 cone graphic will now show tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland as well as coastal areas in the United States, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. NOAA said the change follows an experimental phase and is intended to help inland communities better understand wind risk from tropical cyclones. (noaa.gov) The cone itself still represents the probable track of a storm’s center, not the full area of impacts. The National Hurricane Center says the cone is built from historical forecast errors and is meant to show where the center is likely to remain, while hazardous weather can extend well outside it. (nhc.noaa.gov) ### What comes next after Thursday’s briefing? NOAA’s formal 2026 Atlantic outlook is due at the Lakeland briefing on May 21, and the Atlantic season begins June 1. The National Hurricane Center’s updated cone graphics and routine tropical weather outlooks are scheduled to be in use as the season opens. (noaa.gov) (nhc.noaa.gov) (noaa.gov)