Ceasefire extended, Hormuz attacks continue

President Donald Trump said on April 21 that the United States will keep its ceasefire with Iran in place while waiting for Tehran to produce a unified negotiating proposal. (apnews.com) Hours later, violence continued in the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said an Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboat fired on a container ship northeast of Oman, and Iranian state-linked reports later said two vessels were seized. (apnews.com) Trump said Pakistan asked for the extension and that he would hold off on new strikes until Iranian leaders and representatives could come up with a common position. The two-week truce announced on April 8 had been due to expire this week. (apnews.com) The ceasefire did not end the U.S. pressure campaign. U.S. Central Command said its blockade of maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports began on April 13 at 10 a.m. Eastern time and applies to vessels of all nations going to or from Iranian ports. (centcom.mil) That distinction matters in the waterway at the center of the crisis. The blockade targets Iranian port traffic, while the Strait of Hormuz is the narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman that carries a large share of the world’s seaborne oil trade. (centcom.mil) Iran’s leadership is also negotiating from a position of survival rather than collapse. The Associated Press reported on April 21 that U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top figures, but the state still held together under a council system, with parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf emerging as a chief negotiator. (apnews.com) That has left diplomacy and coercion running side by side. U.S. officials are pressing for talks, Iran has signaled it will not negotiate under pressure, and attacks on commercial shipping have continued even as formal war aims are being discussed. (apnews.com, apnews.com) Energy markets are reacting to that gap between diplomacy and security. Crude oil was trading at about $91.18 a barrel on April 22, up 1.69% on the day, according to Trading Economics. (tradingeconomics.com) The next test is whether Iran’s leadership can produce the proposal Trump says he is waiting for before another maritime clash or a breakdown in talks forces Washington to choose between a longer truce and renewed strikes. (apnews.com, apnews.com)