India retail inflation edges up

India’s retail inflation rose to 3.40% in March, ending February’s dip and putting food and fuel back at the center of the price story. (reuters.com) Government data released on April 13 showed headline consumer inflation at 3.40%, up from 3.21% in February. Rural inflation was 3.63%, while urban inflation was 3.11%. (mospi.gov.in) Food inflation rose to 3.87% in March from 3.47% in February, with rural food inflation at 3.96% and urban food inflation at 3.71%. The March reading was still below the 3.48% estimate in a Reuters poll. (mospi.gov.in) (reuters.com) The pressure was not broad-based across every category. Fuel and light inflation was 1.22% year on year, but transport inflation was 0.00%, showing the early energy shock had not yet spread evenly through household costs. (mospi.gov.in) Indian Express reported sharper month-on-month pressure in energy-linked items after the conflict in West Asia lifted global crude prices. That matters for India because it imports most of its oil and passes part of those costs into cooking gas, transport, and other household bills. (indianexpress.com) (rbi.org.in) The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on April 8 and retained a neutral stance. In the same policy, it projected consumer inflation at 4.6% for the 2026-27 fiscal year and flagged crude oil volatility and geopolitical tensions as upside risks. (rbi.org.in) (business-standard.com) India’s inflation target is 4%, with a tolerance band of 2 percentage points on either side. March’s 3.40% reading leaves inflation inside that band and below the midpoint target, even after the monthly pickup. (rbi.org.in) (reuters.com) For now, the data shows a manageable rise rather than a breakout. The next inflation prints will show whether March was a brief energy-led bump or the start of a broader climb in household prices. (reuters.com) (rbi.org.in)