BoC expected to hold
The Bank of Canada is widely forecast to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 18 meeting — driven by weak jobs and a renewed oil shock that could re-ignite inflation, so the central bank is taking a ‘wait-and-see’ stance rather than moving rates now, analysts reported. Markets are pricing a data‑dependent BoC that’s unlikely to cut unless both inflation and employment improve materially.
Canada lost 83,900 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. (www150.statcan.gc.ca) Brent crude traded near US$100 per barrel while WTI topped about US$95 in early March as supply fears around the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East disruptions pushed prices higher. (finance-commerce.com) Prediction markets put the probability of no policy change at the March 18 meeting at around 97% in some venues, while CORRA/OIS-based dashboards continue to show a dominant hold probability across models. (polymarket.com) The March 18 announcement is a scheduled interest-rate decision that is not paired with a full Monetary Policy Report, meaning the Bank’s statement and updated projections will be more limited than on MPR days. (learnontario.ca) CREA reported national MLS® home sales were down 5.8% month‑over‑month in January 2026, and independent trackers put the national average sale price near $653,000 in early 2026. (crea.ca) Toronto’s MLS® HPI composite benchmark was down 7.9% year‑over‑year in February with an average selling price of $1,008,968, highlighting regional divergence versus national averages. (trreb.ca) Retail channels show best-available 5‑year fixed mortgage offers in the low‑3% range (roughly 3.6–3.9%) while the Big Six banks’ typical 5‑year posted fixed rates sit nearer 4.4–4.6%, and the 5‑year Government of Canada bond yield has climbed to roughly 2.9–3.0% in early March — the bond move that underpins fixed-rate pricing. (wowa.ca)
