Starts up but singles crater
CMHC and industry commentary show overall housing starts rose ~2.8% year-over-year in February, yet single‑family starts plunged about 15.3%—a 30‑year low—while rental completions remain elevated. That mix signals future scarcity in single-family supply even as rental markets face near-term oversupply. (x.com)
CMHC’s February release put the six‑month trend at 256,005 units and the monthly SAAR at roughly 250,900 units, signalling a largely flat national construction tempo heading into spring 2026. (cmhc‑schl.gc.ca) Regional divergence was stark: Vancouver’s actual starts jumped about 60% year‑over‑year in February while Montréal rose ~18%, but Toronto registered a 28% drop driven by lower multi‑unit and single‑detached projects. (cmhc‑schl.gc.ca) CMHC’s Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report shows rental construction led nationwide gains — rental starts hit record highs in Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Halifax and Montréal — while ownership‑oriented (ground‑oriented) construction weakened. (cmhc‑schl.gc.ca) Total new construction rose 6% in 2025 to about 259,000 units, but CMHC flagged collapsing condo presales, surging unsold inventories and tighter financing that threaten future homeowner starts. (cmhc‑schl.gc.ca) CMHC and related releases warned that several large ownership pipelines are at risk and that Toronto’s homebuilding pace was on track for its lowest annual total in 30 years, underscoring a sustained shortfall in family‑sized supply. (cmhc‑schl.gc.ca) Purpose‑built rental completions and starts remain elevated in part because CMHC‑backed financing supported an estimated 88% of new purpose‑built rental apartment starts in 2024, swelling near‑term rental supply in multiple CMAs. (cmhc‑schl.gc.ca) The Bank of Canada has explicitly noted that monetary policy affects housing demand and is placing more emphasis on housing affordability in its policy‑framework work, tying the starts‑mix story to the central bank’s rate outlook and communications. (ca.finance.yahoo.com)
