Fed cuts look unlikely
Federal Reserve officials signaled rate cuts are off the near‑term table as inflation remains stubborn, with policymakers calling for more progress before easing — investors and markets should expect continued uncertainty around policy direction. The commentary comes as energy prices and geopolitical risk complicate the outlook. (reuters.com)
The Federal Open Market Committee left the target federal funds rate at a 3.50%–3.75% range at the March 18 meeting, an 11‑1 vote that the staff framed as a pause amid heightened uncertainty. (cnbc.com) The FOMC’s “dot‑plot” median still shows a single quarter‑point cut penciled in for 2026, even as individual participants’ forecasts remain dispersed across the projection table. (bloomberg.com) Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the March decision that policymakers will need clear evidence of disinflation — particularly in goods prices — before moving to lower the policy rate. (bloomberg.com) Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated in a PBS interview aired March 24 that higher energy costs tied to the war in Iran make the near‑term path to cuts “not good,” and that officials need to see sustained inflation progress before loosening policy. (reuters.com) (msn.com) Market pricing shifted sharply after the Fed’s March meeting: CME‑tracked fed funds futures implied only about a 17.2% probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut later in 2026 as of March 19, reflecting traders’ diminished odds of easing. (cnbc.com) Energy cost shock is a tangible input to the Fed’s calculus — Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel in mid‑March, with Bloomberg reporting a $103.14 close on March 13 that pushed inflation risk back onto the policy radar. (bloomberg.com)
