Ron Butler’s rate call
Mortgage broker Ron Butler posted that the Iran conflict erased the runway for BoC cuts in April/June, predicting no cuts and even a 45% chance of hikes by summer end—a stark, market‑facing take on policy risk. His thread also argues mortgage starts are likely to reprice above 4% in coming months. (x.com)
Overnight‑index swap and short‑end swap pricing in mid‑March implied post‑meeting overnight targets near ~2.24% (April 29) and ~2.28% (June 10), signalling that market models had largely removed room for cuts at those two meetings. (rateprobability.com) The Canada 5‑year benchmark yield moved above the 3.00% mark in mid‑March (about 3.03% on March 11–16), a move that mechanically pushes 5‑year fixed mortgage pricing higher because fixed offers track GoC yields plus lender spreads. (tradingeconomics.com) The Bank of Canada’s 2026 announcement calendar lists policy decisions for April 29 and June 10, the exact meetings referenced as the potential “runway” for cuts. (bankofcanada.ca) Retail aggregators showed best‑available 5‑year fixed discounts around roughly 3.75%–3.94% in mid‑March, reflecting competition among brokers and promo pricing. (ratehub.ca) At the same time the Bank of Canada’s weekly posted “typical” conventional 5‑year mortgage rate among major chartered banks remained at about 6.09% (weekly series), underscoring the gap between advertised discounts and the banks’ posted benchmarks. (bankofcanada.ca) Market commentary and data showed the Iran military strikes lifted oil and financial‑market stress in early March, with Bloomberg flagging “rising market stress” and Reuters noting traders scaled back bets on rate cuts as oil spiked, which supports a repricing toward higher near‑term policy risk. (bloomberg.com ) (reuters.com via news mirrors) Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) market prints showed a 5‑year CMB around ~3.29% in early March, widening the spread to GoC paper and creating a direct channel for lenders to lift fixed product quotes above the sub‑4% discount band if pressure persists. (balmoralcap.com)
