Water managers warn Colorado faces record‑low snowpack after unusually warm, dry winter

Colorado’s water problem starts in the snow. Most of the state’s usable water shows up first as mountain snowpack, then melts out slowly through spring and summer. This year, that system broke early. Water managers and forecasters are now warning that 2026 runoff is arriving ahead of schedule, fading fast, and leaving Colorado with a much smaller buffer for farms, rafting, reservoirs, and downstream obligations. ### What actually went wrong this winter? The short version is warm and dry beat cold and snowy. NRCS said Colorado’s 2026 water year was defined by record March warmth, an unusually early snowpack peak, and snow levels that stayed at or near the bottom of the historical record from January through May 1. Back in January, the agency was already flagging the pattern — warm temperatures and below-normal precipitation had pushed every major basin well below normal. (nrcs.usda.gov) ### How bad is the snowpack now? Very bad — even after a little late help. Colorado’s statewide snowpack was 17% of median on May 12, which is basically the endgame of a season that never built a normal reserve. Early May storms improved conditions from absolute worst-case territory, but hydrologists said they did not change the overall story of a record-low winter. (nrcs.usda.gov) ### Why does early melt matter so much? Because timing is almost as important as volume. A healthy snowpack melts gradually and keeps streams running into the hot months. This year, runoff showed up weeks early across river systems, and NRCS said recession is already underway in many places. That means rivers can spike sooner, then drop sooner — leaving less water later in summer when irrigation demand and heat both climb. (wcc.nrcs.usda.gov) ### Who gets hit first? Usually agriculture and river recreation. Aspen Public Radio’s reporting from ranch country near Cotopaxi showed how dry the ground already looks — one ranch measured 12.75 inches of moisture by early April this year versus nearly 20 inches in April 2025. That kind of gap is not abstract. It means less grass, tighter irrigation choices, and more stress on hay and pasture if spring rains do not keep showing up. (nrcs.usda.gov) ### Is this just a mountain problem? Not really. Colorado is a headwaters state, so weak mountain snow ripples outward. The same runoff that supports Western Slope farms and rafting also feeds reservoirs and helps supply downstream users in the Colorado River system. Earlier this spring, forecasters said inflows into Lake Powell were expected at just 36% of average, with Upper Colorado River Basin snowpack far below normal. (aspenpublicradio.org) ### Did recent storms fix anything? They helped, but they did not fix the deficit. Late April and early May moisture nudged some basin totals higher and reduced immediate wildfire stress in a few places. But a late sprinkle on a failed savings plan is still a failed savings plan — the state cannot rebuild a normal runoff season in May after missing so much accumulation all winter. That’s basically why managers sound worried even when conditions improve a bit week to week. (aspenpublicradio.org) ### Why are officials using drought language already? Because the broader landscape is already flashing warning signs. Drought.gov showed more than 93% of the Colorado River Basin in drought as of May 5, with large shares in severe to extreme drought. CWCB says severe drought has developed across the Colorado headwaters region, driven by very low snowpack and high temperatures. (aspenpublicradio.org) ### So what’s the real bottom line? Colorado is heading into summer with less stored water in the mountains than it usually has, and that raises the odds of hard tradeoffs later. A few more storms can still help soil moisture and fire danger. But they cannot fully replace a winter that never delivered. This is why water managers are treating 2026 as a scarcity year now, not waiting for July to confirm it. (nrcs.usda.gov) (drought.gov)