Tinubu nomination sparks 2027 realignments

President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election effort entered a formal new phase on April 28, when allies collected the All Progressives Congress presidential expression-of-interest and nomination forms on his behalf in Abuja. The APC forms cost ₦100 million, according to party figures reported by Premium Times, and Vice President Kashim Shettima submitted Tinubu’s completed forms to party leaders on May 7. (premiumtimesng.com) Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, two of the best-known opposition figures from the 2023 race, left an African Democratic Congress-led coalition in early May after disputes inside the alliance. (premiumtimesng.com) Reuters reported on May 5 that both men quit the coalition after it had agreed on April 25 to back a single presidential candidate against Tinubu. (inecnigeria.org) The result is a more defined picture of Nigeria’s early 2027 field: Tinubu has moved through APC nomination steps, while the opposition bloc built around a single challenger has fractured before party primaries begin in full. The Independent National Electoral Commission says party primaries for the 2027 general election run from May 22 to June 20, with the presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027. (premiumtimesng.com) ### When did Tinubu’s nomination move from endorsement to paperwork? April 28 was the date Tinubu’s allies collected the APC presidential forms, according to Premium Times. James Faleke, a member of the House of Representatives representing Ikeja Federal Constituency, collected the documents at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja. (straitstimes.com) May 7 was the date Shettima submitted the completed forms to APC leaders, according to BusinessDay. APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda said the party’s National Executive Committee had already endorsed Tinubu, while the National Working Committee also backed him for a second term. (inecnigeria.org) The APC pricing is specific. Premium Times reported that presidential aspirants were required to pay ₦30 million for an expression-of-interest form and ₦70 million for a nomination form, for a combined ₦100 million. ### What broke inside the opposition coalition? (premiumtimesng.com) May 5 was the date Reuters reported that Obi and Kwankwaso had quit a newly formed coalition led through the African Democratic Congress. Reuters said the alliance had agreed on April 25 to support a single presidential candidate in an attempt to avoid another split opposition field. (businessday.ng) Peter Obi said he left because of “endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion, and division” inside the ADC, according to the statement cited by Reuters. ADC spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi said the Ibadan Declaration backing a single candidate would have to be reviewed after the departures. (premiumtimesng.com) Cheta Nwanze, a partner at SBM Intelligence, told Reuters the opposition agreement to field one candidate was “now on life support.” Reuters also reported that Tinubu won the 2023 election with about 35% of the vote, while opposition candidates collectively secured roughly 60%, a split the coalition had hoped to overcome. (straitstimes.com) ### Where did Obi and Kwankwaso go after leaving ADC? May 3 was the date Reuters said Obi and Kwankwaso moved to another opposition grouping, the Nigeria Democratic Congress, after leaving the ADC-led alliance. Other Nigerian outlets also reported their move to the NDC in early May. (straitstimes.com) May 9 was the date Kwankwaso addressed the NDC national convention in Abuja, according to Naija News. The report said the convention zoned the party’s presidential ticket to the South, and Kwankwaso said he supported that decision. That zoning decision matters because Obi, a former Anambra governor, is from the South-East, while Kwankwaso, a former Kano governor, is one of the North’s best-known opposition politicians. (straitstimes.com) The NDC convention did not, in the material reviewed, name a presidential nominee. ### What are the next hard dates to watch? February 13, 2026 was the date INEC issued its notice of election for the 2027 general election, according to the commission’s timetable. (straitstimes.com) INEC says party primaries, including dispute resolution, run from May 22 to June 20. July 14 to July 28, 2026 is the window INEC set for presidential and National Assembly candidate submissions. (naijanews.com) INEC says it will publish candidates’ personal particulars on August 4, and campaigns for presidential and National Assembly elections begin on August 19. January 16, 2027 is the date INEC set for the presidential and National Assembly elections, after revising the timetable following the enactment of the Electoral Act, 2026. (naijanews.com) Governorship and state assembly elections are scheduled for February 6, 2027. (premiumtimesng.com) (inecnigeria.org)