UK study pins steel tariff pain
- Aston University economists said in an April 2026 paper that US steel and aluminium tariffs are largely passed on to buyers, with UK manufacturers and consumers absorbing most of the hit. - The paper estimates 70% to 80% pass-through at the border, while valuing the UK’s preferential US market access at about £482 million a year. - The findings land as Britain prepares a 60% cut to tariff-free steel quotas and a 50% tariff above quota from July 1, 2026. (gov.uk)
An Aston University paper says steel and aluminium tariffs mostly raise costs for UK buyers rather than foreign sellers. (aston.ac.uk) The April 2026 study by Jun Du, Oleksandr Shepotylo, Yujie Shi and Lisha He examined monthly trade data from 2022 to 2025 and a multi-sector economic model. It found US imports of covered products fell about 20% for steel and 10% for aluminium after the tariffs were reimposed and raised. (aston.ac.uk) Its central estimate is that 70% to 80% of the tariff wedge is passed through at the border. In plain terms, most of the extra cost shows up in prices paid by downstream manufacturers and, eventually, consumers. (aston.ac.uk) The paper argues that the burden does not land evenly. Aerospace inputs adjusted more through volumes, while more commoditised downstream goods adjusted more through prices, and tariffs also discouraged new buyer-supplier relationships. (aston.ac.uk) For Britain, the authors put a number on what is at stake: preferential access to the US market is worth about £482 million a year. They say the UK is more exposed than European Union members because it negotiates outside the bloc and has less bargaining power. (aston.ac.uk) That lands as the UK government is tightening its own steel border measures. The Department for Business and Trade said on April 2 that tariff-free steel import quotas will be cut by 60% from July 1, 2026, with a 50% tariff on imports above the quota. (gov.uk) Ministers announced the broader Steel Strategy on March 19, with a target for up to 50% of steel used in the UK to be made in the UK, up from 30%. The government says the policy is needed to protect domestic production, defence supply chains and critical infrastructure from global overcapacity. (gov.uk) The Trade Remedies Authority had already recommended tighter quota rules in May 2025, including 40% country caps in several product categories and the end of quota carry-over from July 2025. It cited worsening global oversupply and pressure on UK producers. (gov.uk) The US side of the squeeze has been building since 2025. A UK government export guidance page says Washington added a 10% tariff on many UK goods from April 5, 2025, while steel and aluminium remained under separate additional tariffs. (business.gov.uk) The Aston paper does not argue against protecting steel in every case. It says the costs travel far beyond the mill gate, into factories that buy metal, the prices they charge, and the trade relationships they can no longer afford to start. (aston.ac.uk)
