Ukraine drone strikes deepen Russia fuel crisis

Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign is now hitting one of Russia’s most sensitive wartime systems: fuel supply. Reports published on July 8 and July 9 said Ukrainian strikes on refineries, storage depots and transport links have left parts of occupied Crimea short of petrol and forced disruptions around refining hubs closer to Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged fuel queues on June 28, saying some grades of gasoline were not always available. Ukrainian officials and outside analysts say the strikes are aimed at reducing the fuel and logistics base that supports Russia’s war effort. ### How far has the fuel disruption spread? Crimea has become one of the clearest pressure points. The Kyiv Independent reported on June 21 that Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea suspended civilian fuel sales after overnight Ukrainian strikes, with fuel reserved for state services and security needs. A separate Kyiv Independent analysis last month said filling stations in Sevastopol ran out of gasoline and diesel was only intermittently available. (kyivindependent.com) Russia’s shortages are no longer confined to the peninsula. Putin said on June 28 that there were still lines at gas stations and that the “right grade of gasoline” was not always available, according to the Kyiv Independent’s report on his remarks. The outlet reported on July 8 that queues measured in days had appeared in some areas and that six major Russian refineries had partially or fully shut down since the start of June. (kyivindependent.com) ### Which sites are Ukraine targeting? Omsk, one of Russia’s key oil refining centers, was hit this week in what CNBC described as one of Ukraine’s deepest strikes of the war. CNBC reported on July 9 that smoke was seen rising from the Omsk refinery and cited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as saying Ukraine’s upgraded capabilities had put Siberia “within reach.” The refinery lies about 2,500 kilometers from Ukrainian territory, CNBC said. (kyivindependent.com) Moscow’s refining belt has also come under repeated pressure. CNBC reported on June 19 that a Ukrainian barrage targeted a major oil refinery on the southeastern outskirts of the Russian capital, prompting a large explosion. The Kyiv Independent and the Independent both said this week that repeated attacks on major refining infrastructure, including sites around Moscow, have shown that heavily defended energy assets remain vulnerable. (cnbc.com) ### What is different about these drone attacks? The Independent reported on July 8 that some Ukrainian “mid-strike” drones are operated through Starlink satellite communications during flight, allowing them to strike targets tens of kilometers behind the front with greater precision. The Kyiv Independent reported last month that Ukraine’s Azov Brigade added a Starlink system to the Hornet drone, a modification that analyst Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute said increased range and resistance to Russian jamming. (cnbc.com) Russia has responded by trying to interfere with those links. The Independent said Moscow was deploying powerful jamming systems designed to disrupt Starlink in an effort to blunt the attacks. CNBC reported on July 9 that NATO plans to invest more than $40 billion over five years in counter-drone capabilities as governments absorb lessons from Ukraine’s campaign. (independent.co.uk) ### What do Ukrainian and outside analysts say the campaign is doing? Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described the deep-strike effort as “Ukrainian long-range sanctions,” according to the Kyiv Independent. CNBC reported on July 9 that defense experts and strategists have called the drone campaign pivotal in helping stall Russia’s military momentum, while warning that deep strikes also raise escalation risks. (independent.co.uk) The next indicators will be visible in refinery outage reports, fuel-sale restrictions in occupied Crimea, and NATO’s planned counter-drone spending decisions, which CNBC said are under discussion in a five-year package worth more than $40 billion. (cnbc.com) (kyivindependent.com)