Japan’s vacant‑home play

Japan already has 9 million vacant homes, according to the government’s latest housing survey, and the empty-house trade is turning into a global sales pitch. (soumu.go.jp) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on September 25, 2024 that vacant homes accounted for 13.8 percent of Japan’s housing stock in the 2023 survey, up from 8.49 million in 2018 to 9 million in 2023. (soumu.go.jp) The bigger number driving investor chatter is a projection, not the current count: the World Economic Forum, citing Nomura Research Institute estimates, said vacant homes could reach 23.03 million by 2038, or about one in three houses. (weforum.org) In Japan, these properties are commonly called *akiya*, and many towns market them through municipal “akiya banks,” which are local databases meant to match empty homes with buyers or renters. The model is now widespread enough that English-language directories say they track more than 1,000 municipal programs. (mlit.go.jp; akiyajapan.com) The low headline prices are real in some places, but they are not a free-house program in the usual sense. Listings on major akiya portals this week included homes in Miyazaki for 1,000,000 yen, in Kagoshima for 2,000,000 yen, and in Osaka for 3,100,000 yen. (akiyabanks.com; akiyabanks.com) Some municipalities also subsidize renovations, but the terms vary sharply by town and usually come with conditions. Hida City in Gifu, for example, said on April 1, 2026 that it will cover up to half of eligible renovation costs, capped at 2.5 million yen, if owners register and rent out the property through the city system. (city.hida.gifu.jp) A Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism casebook shows the same pattern elsewhere: Hida previously offered up to one-half of renovation costs with a 3 million yen cap, and the ministry highlights vacant-home renovation subsidies as one tool for attracting residents and reusing idle housing. (mlit.go.jp) The homes are cheap for structural reasons, not because demand suddenly discovered a bargain. Japan’s population has been shrinking for years, rural towns have been losing younger residents to big cities, and older owners often die or move into care without heirs willing to keep or repair the property. (weforum.org) Foreign buyers can legally purchase Japanese real estate, and as of April 2026 no blanket ban had passed. Recent rule changes require nationality disclosure at registration, while reported policy discussions have focused on land near military bases, nuclear plants and other sensitive sites rather than ordinary homes. (clea.rent) The catch is that buying a cheap akiya is usually the easy part. Local programs often require pre-approval, use of local contractors, multi-year occupancy or rental commitments, and repairs that can cost more than the purchase price. (city.hida.gifu.jp; mlit.go.jp) That leaves Japan with two housing markets at once: tight, expensive homes in Tokyo and Osaka, and a growing stock of low-priced empty houses in towns still trying to turn vacancy into population. (soumu.go.jp; weforum.org)