TransUnion forecasts growth in loan originations
A new TransUnion forecast shows continued positive momentum for credit originations in 2026, expecting moderate expansion across most lending categories. The findings were released alongside the company's Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report, which provides data on consumer credit trends.
- The forecast projects significant growth of 11.2% for unsecured personal loans in 2026, building on a 20.8% expansion in 2025. This follows a record 7.2 million unsecured personal loan originations in Q3 2025, with subprime borrowers driving much of the growth. - Mortgage originations are expected to continue their rebound from recent lows, with purchase loans predicted to grow by 4.0% and refinances by 4.2%. This represents a more moderate and "normal" growth cycle compared to the 28.1% surge in refinances seen in 2025. - Credit card originations are forecast to increase by a modest 2.0%, a significant slowdown after near-record growth in 2025. Total credit card balances reached $1.15 trillion in Q4 2025, and the 90+ day delinquency rate was 2.58%, remaining relatively stable. - In contrast to other categories, auto loan originations are expected to decline by 1.5%. This follows a period of growth in 2025 that was partly driven by consumers making purchases to get ahead of anticipated tariffs and the expiration of certain EV tax credits. - The Q4 2025 data revealed a rise in consumer-level delinquencies for unsecured personal loans, with the 60+ days past due rate climbing to 3.99%, the largest year-over-year increase since early 2023. - Total U.S. consumer debt surpassed $18 trillion as of November 2025, providing a backdrop of increased leverage for the forecasted growth in lending. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that total household debt reached $18.8 trillion by the end of Q4 2025. - A key trend noted in late 2025 was the increasing share of lending to subprime borrowers. In unsecured personal loans, subprime originations grew 32.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, while in the auto sector, the subprime share of new loans also increased. - The forecast was informed by Q4 2025 data showing that while lending expanded, the median VantageScore® saw a year-over-year decline for the first time in several years, dropping 2 points to 711 and signaling a subtle shift in overall consumer credit health.
