IMF trims Turkey growth

The International Monetary Fund cut Turkey’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.4 percent on April 14, down from 4.2 percent in January. (imf.org 1) (imf.org 2) The fund said the downgrade reflected weaker-than-expected momentum in 2025 and a hit from higher oil and gas prices. It also lowered its 2027 forecast to 3.5 percent from 4.1 percent. (turkishminute.com) (imf.org) The April 2026 World Economic Outlook was built on data available through April 1, and the International Monetary Fund said the global economy was being tested by war-driven commodity shocks and tighter financial conditions. (imf.org) Turkey is exposed to that mix because it imports much of its energy, so pricier oil and gas feed into the import bill, inflation and the current account deficit. Fitch said on April 10 that it expects Turkey’s current account deficit to widen to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2026 on higher energy prices. (fitchratings.com) (imf.org) Housing costs are rising at the same time. Eurostat said rents in Turkey were up about 78 percent in 2025, the steepest increase in Europe, far above the European Union trend. (turkishminute.com) (ec.europa.eu) Turkey’s official inflation rate was still 30.87 percent in March 2026, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye kept its policy rate at 37 percent on March 12. (tuik.gov.tr) (tcmb.gov.tr) The central bank says its medium-term inflation target remains 5 percent, with a 2 percentage point uncertainty band on either side. That leaves a wide gap between the target and current price growth. (tcmb.gov.tr) (tuik.gov.tr) Turkey’s economy grew 3.4 percent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. The International Monetary Fund’s new 2026 forecast now points to a similar pace carrying into this year rather than the rebound it expected in January. (tuik.gov.tr) (imf.org) The next test comes from prices as much as output. If energy stays expensive and rents keep climbing, Turkey’s path back to faster growth and lower inflation gets narrower. (imf.org) (ec.europa.eu)