Playoff odds snapshot
- Early first-round odds favor higher seeds in seven of eight matchups, with one notable exception. (nytimes.com) - The Rockets are favored over an injured Lakers squad, and Knicks-Hawks Game 3 is a pick’em. (nytimes.com) - That spread shows the postseason is mostly predictable so far, but a few tight series could swing brackets fast. (nytimes.com)
The first-round board is mostly holding to seed order on April 23, with higher seeds favored in seven of eight NBA playoff series. (nba.com) (sports.yahoo.com) The exception sits in the West, where the No. 5 Houston Rockets are favored in Game 3 against the No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers even though Los Angeles leads the series 2-0. DraftKings listed Houston as a 9.5-point favorite for Friday, April 24, and Fox Sports showed the Lakers still slight series favorites at -135 as of April 22. (foxsports.com) (usatoday.com) (nba.com) That split tracks with the Lakers’ injury list. Luka Doncic has been out since April 2 with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, Austin Reaves has also been ruled out to start the series, and NBC Los Angeles reported on April 14 that both would miss the opening round opener against Houston. (si.com) (nbclosangeles.com) (iheart.com) The other near-coin flip is Knicks-Hawks. The series is tied 1-1, and Fox Sports had Atlanta -1.5 for Game 3 on Thursday, April 23, while listing both moneylines at -110, effectively a pick’em. (nba.com) (foxsports.com) Everywhere else, the market is leaning hard toward the teams that finished higher in the standings. Yahoo Sports listed Cleveland at -2000 against Toronto and Oklahoma City at -10000 against Phoenix, with the Cavaliers up 2-0 and the Thunder up 1-0 when those prices were posted on April 22. (sports.yahoo.com) (nba.com) The standings and bracket explain why those prices are so lopsided. NBA.com shows Cleveland already up 2-0 on Toronto, Oklahoma City up 2-0 on Phoenix after Wednesday’s win, and both Detroit-Orlando and Boston-Philadelphia sitting 1-1 going into the next games. (nba.com 1) (nba.com 2) A few middle-tier series still look open. Yahoo Sports posted New York at -185 over Atlanta, Denver at -250 over Minnesota, and San Antonio at -550 over Portland, with all three matchups either tied 1-1 or still early enough for one road win to shift the price. (sports.yahoo.com) (foxsports.com) The schedule leaves room for those odds to move quickly. Knicks-Hawks and Nuggets-Timberwolves play Thursday, April 23, while Lakers-Rockets and Spurs-Trail Blazers resume Friday, April 24, with Detroit-Orlando and Thunder-Suns back Saturday, April 25. (nba.com 1) (nba.com 2) So the snapshot entering Thursday is simple: most first-round series still look like a chalk bracket, but Houston’s Game 3 edge over a depleted Lakers team and the toss-up in Atlanta are the two places where the market is blinking. (foxsports.com) (sports.yahoo.com)
