U.S. Senate unblocks crypto bill, 65% odds
- Sens. Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks released compromise language on stablecoin rewards, clearing the main Senate bottleneck holding up the CLARITY Act. (forbes.com) - The draft bars bank-like interest on idle stablecoin balances but still allows activity-based rewards tied to payments, liquidity, or other bona fide use. (coindesk.com) - Traders quickly repriced the bill’s odds into the low 60s, because the fight had shifted from whether talks survive to timing. (polymarket.com)
Crypto policy in Washington just moved from vague promise to actual text. That matters because the biggest U.S. market-structure bill for digital assets had been stuck(forbes.com)d May 2, that logjam loosened. Senate negotiators put out compromise language, and the bill that had been wobbling suddenly looked alive again. (coindesk.com)ged? Sens. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, and Angela Alsobrooks, a Maryland Democrat, settled on language for the CLARI(polymarket.com)d been fighting over, because it decides whether a dollar-backed token can compete directly with insured bank deposits. The new text is the reason industry groups are now pushing for a Senate Banking Committee markup instead of arguing over first principles. (forbes.com) ### Why was yield the choke point? A stablecoin is supposed t(forbes.com)turn just for parking money there, the product starts to look a lot like a bank account without the same regulatory structure. That is where the fight came from. Banks wanted a hard wall. Crypto firms wanted room to keep offering rewards. (coindesk.com) ### So what does the compromise do? Basically, it draws a line between passive interest and usage-based incen(forbes.com)on. But it still allows rewards tied to actual activity, like payments, liquidity provision, or loyalty-style programs tied to bona fide transactions. That is a meaningful concession in both directions. Banks get protection from direct deposit substitution. Crypto platforms keep some room to design on-chain incentives. (coindesk.com)-only bill — the GENIUS Act — already became law on July 18, 2025, after passing the Senate 68-30 and the House 308-122. CLARITY is the broader market-structure package. It tries to sort out who regulates what in crypto, with the CFTC getting a central role over digital commodities while the SEC keeps parts of primary-market authority. Stablecoins are excluded from the bill’s “digital commodity” bucket, but the yield language became the political hinge for moving the larger package. (congress.gov)ongress.gov still shows H.R. 3633’s formal House-side latest action as June 23, 2025, while Senate work has centered on hearings, negotiations, and draft language rather than floor passage. In other words — the market was waiting for proof that Senate negotiators could resolve the hardest live dispute. This week gave them that proof. (congress.gov) ### Where does the 65% idea come from? Not from Congress. It comes from prediction markets. Polymarket’s contract on whether the CLARITY Act becomes law by the end of 2026 was si(congress.gov)recast in the official sense. But it is a clean read on how traders repriced the bill once the yield fight looked less fatal. (polymarket.com) ### What’s the catch? The compromise is not the same thing as enactment. A markup still has to happen. Senate language can still change. And the draft’s ban is broad enough that some crypto groups are already warning firms may need to rebuild reward programs from “buy(congress.gov)han some crypto bulls wanted. (coindesk.com) ### Bottom line? The real news is not that Washington suddenly loves crypto. It is narrower than that. Senate negotiators found a way to keep stablecoins from acting too much like bank deposits while still leaving (polymarket.com) sees a path, not a guarantee. (forbes.com)
