Investment Shifts to 'National Security'
A new global economic realignment is pivoting investment from globalization toward national security, according to analyst Peter Tchir. He argues that countries are increasingly prioritizing domestic production in critical sectors like semiconductors, energy, and minerals. This shift suggests a future where strategic infrastructure, resilient energy grids, and secure supply chains will attract significant public and private capital.
- The Dutch government's 2022 National Raw Materials Strategy is a direct response to geopolitical shifts and aims to secure the supply of critical materials like lithium and cobalt, which are essential for the energy transition. This strategy emphasizes circularity, innovation, and sustainable European mining to reduce dependency on single-country sources. - In line with the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act, the Netherlands is bolstering its domestic semiconductor industry through "Project Beethoven," a €2.51 billion investment in the Brainport Eindhoven region to enhance talent, infrastructure, and housing. A significant portion of this funding, €1.28 billion, comes from the National Growth Fund. - To protect against foreign state influence, the Netherlands implemented the Investments, Mergers and Acquisitions Security Screening Act (Vifo Act) in 2023. This law mandates screening of investments in critical infrastructure and sensitive technologies like quantum, photonics, and semiconductors to prevent threats to national security. The government has since proposed expanding this screening to include AI, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. - The Dutch circular economy strategy is explicitly framed as a national security issue, aiming to reduce raw material dependency and enhance industrial resilience. The national goal is to achieve a fully circular economy by 2050, with a 50% reduction in the use of primary raw materials by 2030. - A major national security concern is the resilience of the energy grid, which is currently strained by the rapid growth of renewable energy sources. The government has launched a National Action Programme and a "Grid Congestion Campaign" with eight specific measures to accelerate grid expansion and better manage capacity, aiming to free up 5-10 GW by 2030. - Recent geopolitical events, including the war in Ukraine, have directly influenced Dutch spatial planning, leading to a re-evaluation of land use for military purposes and accelerating the push for the energy transition, which has significant spatial demands for infrastructure like wind and solar farms. - The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is developing spatial scenarios for 2050 that integrate long-term transitions related to climate adaptation, energy, and the circular economy, acknowledging the growing uncertainty from geopolitical and economic shifts. These scenarios are critical tools for informing national and municipal strategic planning. - At the municipal level, the European Union is empowering cities to play a central role in building strategic autonomy through the circular economy. EU funds are increasingly directed towards sustainable urban development, with at least 8% of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) dedicated to projects selected by cities themselves.
