Europe Faces Jet‑Fuel Crunch

Europe’s airlines are heading into the summer with a jet-fuel squeeze that could mean fewer flights and higher fares if replacement supplies do not arrive fast enough. (cnbc.com) The immediate shock is in the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane that previously carried about 20% of the world’s oil supply. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told CNBC on April 23 that Europe’s August jet-fuel demand is usually about 40% higher than in March, just as supply from the Middle East has fallen sharply. (cnbc.com) Birol said Middle East refineries normally provide about 75% of Europe’s jet fuel, but output reaching Europe is now “basically almost zero.” He said Europe is trying to replace those barrels with imports from the United States and Nigeria. (cnbc.com) Fuel is not a side cost for airlines. Bernstein told CNBC carriers usually operate on single-digit margins and spend about 20% to 40% of revenue on fuel, while the International Air Transport Association said jet-fuel prices were up 103% by the end of March from a month earlier. (cnbc.com; tacindex.com) Airlines have already started cutting capacity instead of waiting for summer queues to form. Lufthansa Group said it would cancel 20,000 short-haul flights through October, and SAS said in March it would cancel at least 1,000 April flights after jet-fuel prices doubled in about 10 days. (euronews.com; euronews.com) Politico reported three broad paths for the summer: a quick easing that still leaves fares elevated, a partial reopening with patchy supply and local airport shortages, or a prolonged disruption that forces deeper schedule cuts. In the middle scenario, analysts said weaker routes are the first candidates for cancellation. (politico.eu) The strain is landing on a system that was already running less smoothly than a year ago. EUROCONTROL said Europe handled 27,784 daily flights in the week of March 23-29, but punctuality slipped and en-route air-traffic-flow-management delays rose 26% from the same week in 2025. (eurocontrol.int) Most of those network delays were not caused by fuel at all. EUROCONTROL said 73% of en-route delays in that week were tied to air-traffic-control capacity and staffing problems, especially in Spain and France. (eurocontrol.int) A second bottleneck is now forming at the border. Euronews reported that the European Union’s Entry/Exit System went live across 29 Schengen countries on April 10, replacing manual passport stamps for short-stay non-European Union travelers with biometric checks that produced queues of up to three hours in its first weekend. (euronews.com) Airports Council International Europe and Airlines for Europe said the new border system caused missed flights and asked Brussels for more flexibility, including possible temporary suspensions at some airports through the summer. (euronews.com) The stakes are larger than holiday schedules alone. Airports Council International Europe says air connectivity supports 14 million jobs and about €851 billion in annual economic activity across Europe, which leaves airlines, airports and governments racing the calendar before the summer peak arrives. (aci-europe.org)