Copernicus seasonal map for Turkey

Copernicus’s latest seasonal outlook points to a wetter-than-usual next three months for Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean, alongside warmer conditions across much of Central and Eastern Europe. (climate.copernicus.eu) The forecast comes from the Copernicus Climate Change Service update published on April 10, 2026, which says its seasonal products cover six months ahead and are refreshed every month. The maps combine several forecasting systems rather than a single model. (climate.copernicus.eu) Seasonal forecasts do not predict the weather on a specific day. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says they show anomalies from a long-term climate baseline and probabilities that a season will be wetter, drier, warmer, or cooler than normal. (ecmwf.int) For precipitation, the Copernicus agricultural viewer describes these maps as “tercile” forecasts: they sort outcomes into drier than normal, near normal, and wetter than normal, then show which bucket has the highest probability on a grid of about 100 kilometers. (agricultural-production-hotspots.ec.europa.eu) That means a 60 to 70 percent wet signal over Turkey is not a promise of nonstop rain. It means the models currently give the “wetter than normal” category the strongest odds for that season. (agricultural-production-hotspots.ec.europa.eu; ecmwf.int) The temperature side of the same outlook fits a broader European pattern. Copernicus said on April 10 that above-average temperatures are favored widely, and over Europe the June-to-August forecast shows a slight signal for below-average rainfall in the continent’s northeast. (climate.copernicus.eu) The forecast lands after a dry stretch in the region. A Joint Research Centre drought report published in 2025 said drought conditions were affecting large parts of eastern and southern Europe and that low river flows were hitting northern Germany, Benelux, eastern Europe, and Türkiye. (publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu) Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization also said Europe had its warmest year on record in 2024, with an east-west contrast that left the east extremely dry and often record-warm. (wmo.int; ecmwf.int) Copernicus says the current multi-system outlook is also being shaped by forecasts for El Niño development later in the period, a large Pacific Ocean warming pattern that can shift weather far beyond the tropics. (climate.copernicus.eu; ecmwf.int) The next test is simple: whether the monthly updates keep the wet signal over Turkey in place as spring turns to summer. Copernicus publishes new graphics on the 10th day of each month at 12 Coordinated Universal Time. (climate.copernicus.eu)