CAPA warns air cargo shaky

Air cargo had a strong 2025. That part is real. IATA says global demand hit a record last year, and carriers kept cargo as a meaningful profit engine even as passenger flying normalized. But the mood going into 2026 is a lot less comfortable — CAPA’s latest outlook frames the market as resilient, but also much more brittle if fuel spikes, trade lanes shift again, or capacity gets pinched. ### What changed? The big shift is not that air cargo suddenly collapsed. It didn’t. The shift is that 2025’s strength came from a weird mix of rerouted trade, e-commerce demand, and a system that kept finding workarounds. CAPA’s point is that 2026 looks shakier because the easy buffers are thinner now — costs are up, networks are more exposed to geopolitical disruption, and operators have less room to absorb another shock without passing it through in rates or service decisions. (iata.org) ### How strong was 2025, really? Pretty strong. IATA said full-year 2025 cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, rose 3.4% versus 2024, with international operations up 4.2%. Revenue was projected at about $157 billion, and cargo volumes reached a record level even though the industry was already well past the emergency-pandemic phase that had temporarily inflated airfreight’s role. That matters because it means the warning for 2026 is coming off a high base, not off a slump. (centreforaviation.com) ### Why does 2026 feel more fragile? Because the pressure points are stacking. CAPA flags rising and volatile fuel costs, labor inflation, and broader uncertainty around pricing and investment. Separate market commentary points to the same basic problem from another angle — capacity growth has been modest, and the kind of capacity available has shifted, so even when total space exists, it may not be in the right lanes or in the right form for urgent freight. (iata.org) That is how a market can look balanced on paper but still feel brittle in practice. ### Where do you see that in real life? You can see it in the split between growth stories and stress stories. In Latin America and the Caribbean, ALTA said March 2026 passenger traffic rose 6% year over year to 43.1 million travelers, with intra-regional traffic up 10.7%. That tells you aviation demand is still there. But passenger growth does not automatically solve cargo constraints — belly capacity helps, but it follows passenger networks, not always freight needs. (centreforaviation.com) ### So why is DHL launching a heavier express product now? Because customers still need premium lift for time-sensitive freight. DHL Express on May 11 rolled out Heavy Weight Express, a global service for shipments up to 1,000 kg per piece and 3,000 kg per shipment, backed by dedicated priority desks. Basically, the company is leaning into the part of the market willing to pay for reliability when standard options are too slow or too uncertain. (alta.aero) ### Does that mean premium air is back as the answer? As an answer, yes. As the answer, no. Premium products work best as exceptions — factory stoppages, urgent replenishment, high-value goods, missed ocean connections. The catch is that if companies start relying on premium air over and over to patch planning gaps, the cost base rises fast and operational risk rises with it. A workaround is still a workaround, even when it comes with a branded service level. (group.dhl.com) ### What should shippers take from this? The market is still functioning, and in some regions it is still growing. But 2026 looks like a year for tighter planning, not casual assumptions. If fuel stays volatile, geopolitics keeps redirecting flows, and capacity remains only selectively available, then air cargo will stay valuable — just less forgiving. (group.dhl.com) ### Bottom line The story is not “air cargo is weak.” It’s that air cargo is strong enough to matter and fragile enough to punish sloppy recovery plans. That combination is what makes CAPA’s warning worth paying attention to. (centreforaviation.com)