Euro‑zone growth stalls
Markets turned cautious as data showed euro‑zone growth nearly stalled in March, with oil and yields adding pressure on activity and sentiment ( reuters.com ). Italy’s main business lobby, Confindustria, cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to just 0.5%, citing the fallout from the Iran conflict as a major drag on consumption and exports ( globalbankingandfinance.com ).
S&P Global’s flash euro‑area Composite PMI dropped to 50.5 in March from 51.9 in February, its weakest reading in ten months and signalling only marginal private‑sector expansion. (tradingeconomics.com) Euro‑area manufacturing held up while services lost momentum: the euro‑area manufacturing PMI rose to about 51.4 in March even as services activity slid toward stagnation, according to preliminary PMI data. (tradingeconomics.com (tradingeconomics.com) Brent crude traded around $104 per barrel on March 24, a level roughly 40–43% above its price a year earlier and a key driver of higher input costs for euro‑zone firms. (markets.ft.com) Germany’s 10‑year Bund yield sat near multi‑year highs — roughly 3.0% on March 24 — even as benchmark Bunds were reported trading close to their highest levels in nearly 15 years amid Middle East tensions. (tradingeconomics.com (zawya.com) Confindustria’s spring forecast sets a baseline of +0.5% GDP for Italy in 2026 only under an “optimistic” assumption that the Iran conflict ends by end‑March, and it sketches a worst‑case 2026 recession of −0.7% if hostilities persist all year. (en.ilsole24ore.com (ansa.it) ECB staff projections used market futures that implied Brent would peak around $90 per barrel in Q2 2026 in their March baseline, a technical assumption that underpins their updated inflation and growth paths. (ecb.europa.eu) Euro‑area consumer sentiment plunged to a flash reading of −16.3 in March — the weakest since October 2023 — and Eurostat’s first estimates show industrial production fell 1.5% month‑on‑month (−1.2% year‑on‑year) in January, underlining demand and output softness ahead of the March PMI shock. (economy‑finance.ec.europa.eu (ec.europa.eu)
