Edmonton new‑home market set to cool

CMHC projects) Edmonton housing starts will fall into a 16,500–24,500 range in 2026, compared with 21,337 starts recorded in 2025. The Greater Edmonton Area logged 1,151 residential sales and 2,518 new listings in January 2026, with inventory 32.7% higher year-over-year and an average sold price of $448,761 (MLS® HPI benchmark $415,000). realtorsofedmonton.com CMHC’s national Housing Market Outlook identifies) rental projects and “missing‑middle” ground‑oriented supply as the primary source of new construction while condominium starts are expected to be notably weak over the forecast period. cmhc-schl.gc.ca Local market economics are tightening: CBRE’s Mark Anderson reported) construction pricing for improvement projects has roughly doubled to about $150–$175/sq ft from prior ~$85/sq ft, and regional commentary highlights rising development fees as an additional drag on project viability. edmonton.taproot.news The Bank of Canada held) its policy rate at 2.25% on Jan. 28, 2026; major‑bank prime sits at 4.45% as of early March 2026 [reported]. ycharts.com The Canada 5‑year benchmark yield climbed to roughly 3.03% on March 11, 2026, tightening the pricing band for fixed‑rate mortgages. tradingeconomics.com Posted conventional 5‑year mortgage rates among Canada’s big banks averaged about 6.09% in early March 2026, per Bank of Canada posted‑rates data. bankofcanada.ca Industry observers note early‑year signals pointing toward CMHC’s lower‑case start scenario: January starts were reported down about 19% year‑over‑year, which analysts say increases the odds of a 2026 outcome nearer to the 16,500‑start floor. msn.com