Gujarat Titans' playoff odds jump to 99.6% after big win

Gujarat Titans moved to the brink of the IPL playoffs after beating Sunrisers Hyderabad by 82 runs in Ahmedabad on May 12, and a Times of India probability model published on Wednesday put their chances of finishing in the top four at 99.6%. The official IPL match report said Gujarat defended 168 by bowling Hyderabad out for 86 in 14.5 overs, lifting the Titans to the top of the points table. With 14 league matches still to play at the time of the calculation, the playoff race narrowed sharply around a small group of teams while Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians were already out. ### How did Gujarat get to 99.6%? The Times of India said Gujarat finish in the top four in 16,324 of the 16,384 possible combinations of results left in the league stage. The same analysis said Gujarat also had an 84.5% chance of ending in the top two, singly or jointly, after the Hyderabad result. (iplt20.com) Tuesday’s win did most of the work. The IPL’s official report said Kagiso Rabada and Mohammed Siraj led a powerplay burst that broke Hyderabad’s chase, while Sai Sudharsan made 61 off 44 balls and Washington Sundar added 50 off 33 to push Gujarat to 168 for 5. The NDTV points table listed Gujarat on 16 points from 12 matches as of May 14, ahead of the rest of the field. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) That leaves the Titans with two league games remaining, against Kolkata Knight Riders on May 16 and Chennai Super Kings on May 21, according to ESPNcricinfo’s fixture list. ### Which teams are still in the main playoff race? (iplt20.com) Sunrisers Hyderabad remained in strong position despite the loss, but their odds dropped. The Times of India put Hyderabad’s chance of finishing in the top four at 76.8% and their chance of ending in the top two at 35.5%. Punjab Kings were at 64.5% for a top-four finish, while Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals were almost level at 53.9% and 53.8%. (sports.ndtv.com) Royal Challengers Bengaluru were also firmly in contention. The same Times of India analysis gave Bengaluru an 88.1% chance of finishing in the top four and a 59% chance of ending in the top two. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) NDTV’s table showed Gujarat on 16 points and Bengaluru on 14 as of May 14, with several teams still bunched behind them. That congestion is why teams in the middle of the table remain live despite only a handful of fixtures left. ### Who has already been eliminated? Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians were already out of playoff contention in the Times of India model published on May 13. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) Delhi Capitals were still alive, but only barely, with a 3.2% probability of making the top four by points, the report said. (sports.ndtv.com) ESPNcricinfo’s schedule showed Mumbai still due to play Punjab Kings on May 14 and Kolkata Knight Riders on May 20, while Lucknow were set to host Chennai on May 15 and then travel to Rajasthan on May 19. Those matches can still change other teams’ chances even if Mumbai and Lucknow cannot qualify themselves. ### What number matters most for Chennai? (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) NDTV’s points-table analysis said 18 points would guarantee Chennai Super Kings a playoff place. Chennai were still in the race as of May 14 and had two major fixtures left on the schedule: away to Lucknow on May 15 and at home to Sunrisers Hyderabad on May 18, before closing against Gujarat on May 21. (espncricinfo.com) The Times of India calculation put Chennai’s chance of reaching the top four at 53.9%, which made them one of the tightest calls in the field. Rajasthan were effectively in the same bracket at 53.8%, while Kolkata still had a smaller 12.8% chance. (sports.ndtv.com) ### What comes next in the schedule? The next fixtures are Punjab Kings against Mumbai Indians on May 14 in Dharamsala and Lucknow Super Giants against Chennai Super Kings on May 15 in Lucknow, according to ESPNcricinfo. Gujarat’s next chance to add to their 16-point total comes on May 16 against Kolkata Knight Riders at Eden Gardens, before their final league match against Chennai on May 21 in Ahmedabad. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (espncricinfo.com)