Fitch: steady global growth
Fitch forecasts steady global GDP growth for 2026 but flags oil-price swings and U.S. and China fiscal moves as key downside risks. China started 2026 stronger than expected—industrial output rose 6.3% year‑on‑year and retail sales were up 2.8%—and Fitch lifted India’s FY26 growth forecast to 7.5%, underlining Asia’s role in the resilience. (indexbox.io), (macaonews.org) (theprayasindia.com)
Fitch now projects global growth will ease to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.7% in 2025, a baseline revised up from the 2.4% it forecast in December. (fitchratings.com) The agency raised its 2026 annual average Brent crude forecast to $70 per barrel from $63, modeling an assumption that the Strait of Hormuz could be effectively closed for about a month before prices ease. (fitchratings.com) In a prolonged high‑oil scenario—Brent at $100/barrel—Fitch estimates world GDP would be 0.4 percentage points lower after four quarters and inflation would rise by roughly 1.2–1.5 percentage points in Europe and the United States. (fitchratings.com) Fitch upgraded its US 2026 GDP forecast to 2.2% (from 2.0% in its January update), attributing the lift to resilient consumption and a surge in AI‑related investment while warning that household income pressures and a widening fiscal deficit will slow consumption later in the year. (fitchratings.com) The eurozone is forecast at 1.3% growth in 2026 (unchanged from December), with a 0.3 percentage‑point pickup when Ireland is excluded, and Fitch notes Germany’s activity is recovering following fiscal easing. (fitchratings.com) Fitch projects China’s GDP to moderate to about 4.3% in 2026 from 5.0% in 2025 but anticipates a mild recovery in capital expenditure after 2025 recorded the first annual decline in investment since 1990. (fitchratings.com) The report highlights a 2025 rebound in world trade driven by the high import intensity of IT investment and semiconductor geographic concentration, and records China’s private‑sector net lending (saving minus investment) at an historical high of more than 11% of GDP. (fitchratings.com)
