Oil spikes, macro trims

Oil topping $100 is already nudging big forecasters to downgrade growth—Fitch sees global GDP down 0.4% and US/EU inflation up 1.2–1.5%—and Goldman cut 2026 US GDP by 0.3% while lifting PCE to 2.9%. Gas prices jumped ~25% to ~$3.70/gal and US Q4 GDP was revised to 0.7%, all feeding faster‑than‑expected upside to inflation risks this year [](https://x.com/i/status/2032672749324521931) [](https://x.com/i/status/2032687803771863171).