Jet-fuel futures spike ~68%, sending Brent crude up roughly 45%

Brent crude was near $109 a barrel on Monday, April 27, as traders kept pricing in disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. (tradingeconomics.com) (wsj.com) The bigger move started weeks earlier. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Brent began 2026 at $61 a barrel and finished March at $118 after military action on February 28 and the de facto closure of Hormuz. (eia.gov) The same EIA update said daily Brent spot prices reached almost $128 on April 2, while March production shut-ins across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain totaled 7.5 million barrels a day. (eia.gov 1) (eia.gov 2) Jet fuel has been even tighter than crude. The International Air Transport Association said the global average jet fuel price was $184.63 a barrel last week, and Reuters reported Northwest European jet fuel had already climbed to $1,133 a metric ton in early March, the highest since late 2022. (iata.org) (thehindubusinessline.com) That matters for airlines because fuel is one of their biggest operating costs. Reuters reported Air France-KLM raised one-year hedge coverage to 87% from 68%, while easyJet said it had hedged 84% of its fuel needs for the first half of 2026. (thehindubusinessline.com) The core issue is geography as much as diplomacy. EIA says about 20 million barrels a day moved through Hormuz in 2024, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, and few alternatives can replace that route if traffic stops. (eia.gov) EIA’s April outlook assumed the conflict would not persist past April and projected Brent would peak around $115 a barrel in the second quarter before easing below $90 in the fourth quarter. Monday’s prices show traders are still testing that assumption. (eia.gov) (tradingeconomics.com) European officials have also been preparing for product shortages, not just crude shortages. Reuters reported on April 17 that the European Union was prepared to coordinate a release of jet-fuel stocks if Hormuz disruption persisted. (msn.com) So the cleanest reading of the move is not a one-day spike from nowhere. It is a market still repricing oil and aviation fuel after a chokepoint that carries one-fifth of global petroleum flows became unreliable. (eia.gov 1) (eia.gov 2)