Zillow trims 2026 outlook
Zillow lowered its 2026 housing forecast after mortgage rates jumped this month — roughly one‑third of last year’s year‑over‑year affordability gains have already been erased. Analysts tie the reversal to the Iran war and energy‑price shocks that are damping the expected spring rebound. (scotsmanguide.com) (cnbc.com)
Zillow’s March 24 sensitivity runs model a 50-basis-point mortgage-rate shock together with a 20-basis-point rise in unemployment and show existing-home sales would still rise 3.48% in 2026 if the shock ends May 1, 2.33% if it ends July 1, 1.21% if it ends Sept. 1, and would fall 0.73% if the shock persisted the full year. (zillow.com) Zillow’s March 13 market report projects U.S. home values to finish 2026 up 0.7% year-over-year and existing home sales to increase 4.4% over 2025, figures Zillow describes as a slight downward revision from prior monthly estimates. (zillow.com) Weekly and daily mortgage surveys registered the March move: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed averaged 6.22% for the week ending March 19, 2026 (up from about 6.00% the week of March 5), while Mortgage News Daily’s daily series recorded roughly 6.55% on March 24 and 6.48% on March 25. (freddiemac.com) Media and market commentary point to the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and the resulting oil-price shock as the proximate trigger for higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates, with CNBC noting oil-driven bond moves and a one-week U.S. gasoline jump AAA put at 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. (cnbc.com) Zillow’s note warns the timing and duration of energy-price pressure matter: the firm explicitly modeled multiple end-dates for the shock because a shock that extends into the spring and peak shopping season materially compresses the modest rebound it had expected for 2026. (zillow.com) Zillow’s March outlook is a downgrade from its Dec. 4, 2025 outlook, when the firm forecast 2026 home-value growth of about 1.2%, signaling a smaller price-recovery trajectory after the March revisions. (zillow.com)
