Futures slip — Dow ~500

U.S. stock futures turned lower late Monday into early Tuesday, with Dow futures indicating a drop of about 500 points before the cash market opened. (cnbc.com) The move followed a strong Monday rebound on Wall Street, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 301.68 points to 48,218.25, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 1.02% to 6,886.24, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.23% to 23,183.74. (cnbc.com) Monday’s rally came after President Donald Trump said the United States had been “called by the other side” and that Iran wanted a deal, comments that helped stocks recover from earlier losses of more than 400 points in the Dow. (cnbc.com) The overnight reversal left traders back where they have been for weeks: pricing markets around war risk in the Middle East, oil near $100 a barrel, and shifting odds of a diplomatic breakthrough. West Texas Intermediate crude settled Monday at $99.08, while Brent ended at $99.36. (cnbc.com) Futures are contracts tied to where investors expect indexes to open, not the final opening bell itself. A 500-point move in Dow futures points to a weaker start, but the actual cash index can change quickly before 9:30 a.m. Eastern. (cnbc.com) The current market swing has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that handles a large share of the world’s seaborne oil traffic. Trump’s blockade of maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports took effect Monday after weekend talks in Islamabad ended without a deal. (cnbc.com) Investors have been using each headline from Washington, Tehran, and the oil market as a trading signal. CNBC reported that the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, rose as high as 21.58 on Monday before closing at 19.12, below the intraday peak reached during the session. (cnbc.com; (cnbc.com)) The same pattern showed up earlier this month. On April 8, after a temporary United States-Iran ceasefire pushed oil lower, the Dow jumped 1,300 points in its best day since April 2025, only for uncertainty over the two-week truce and shipping through Hormuz to persist. (cnbc.com) What traders watch next is simple: whether oil holds near triple digits, whether talks resume, and whether the futures selloff carries into regular trading after Monday’s late-session optimism. (cnbc.com; cnbc.com)